Model-based step-wise marginal CO2 abatement cost curves to determine least-cost decarbonization pathways for sector-coupled energy systems

Misconel, Steffi; Prina, Matteo Giacomo; Hobbie, Hannes; Möst, Dominik; Sparber, Wolfram

doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.133173

Cited by 22 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 63 publications

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“…Thus, holding the size of abatement increments constant, the resulting incremental (marginal) abatement cost is not always increasing as the firm selects more ambitious target levels E. Convex segments of the AC(•) curve emerge for both relatively high and relatively low emissions target levels but not in the mid-range. This lack of convexity stands in contrast to earlier studies on marginal abatement cost curves as popularized by McKinsey 16 and studied in numerous contexts [17][18][19][20][21] . A central assumption of marginal abatement cost curves in earlier work is that the abatement impact of different levers is separable, allowing for levers to be ordered by increasing marginal costs [54][55][56] .…”

Section: Cost-efficient Abatement Leverscontrasting

confidence: 85%

Cost-Efficient Decarbonization of Portland Cement Production

Glenk,

Kelnhofer,

Meier

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Accounting for nearly 8% of global annual carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, the cement industry is considered difficult to decarbonize. While a sizeable number of abatement levers for Portland cement production is becoming technologically ready for deployment, many are still viewed as prohibitively expensive. Here we develop a generic abatement cost framework for identifying cost-efficient pathways toward substantial emission reductions. We calibrate our model with new industry data in the context of European cement plants that must obtain emission permits under the European Emissions Trading System. We find that a price of €81 per ton of CO2, as observed on average in 2022, incentivizes firms to reduce their annual direct emissions by about one-third relative to the status quo. Yet, these incentives increase sharply at a carbon price of €126 per ton. If cement producers were to expect such carbon price levels to persist in the future, they would have incentives to reduce emissions by almost 80% relative to current emission levels. JEL Codes: M1, O33, Q42, Q52, Q54, Q55, Q58

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Section: Cost-efficient Abatement Leverscontrasting

confidence: 85%

Cost-Efficient Decarbonization of Portland Cement Production

Glenk,

Kelnhofer,

Meier

et al. 2023

Preprint

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“…The social cost of the full decarbonization of the energy sector is captured by the sector specific marginal abatement cost curve, widely used in the literature with a well-established methodology. (Misconel et al, 2022)review the literature that defines carbon abatement cost curves by similar models. These approaches share the feature that they identify the least-cost response to the emission constraint, identifying the sectors and technologies where abatement happens.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Role of Price Incentives in Enhancing Carbon Sequestration in the Forestry Sector of Hungary

Gabriella,

Rácz,

Kis

2023

Preprint

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“…MAC curves can be optimized using the modeling tool EnergyPLAN [174,175]. The EPLANopt MAC, a methodology used to determine the least-cost decarbonization pathway for sectorally coupled energy systems, has been expanded and applied [176] and was used in the study of hydrocarbon economics of transitioning from natural gas-fired generation to 100% renewable energy generation [177]. Compared with financial analysis methods, engineering modeling methods are more accurate, have a smaller margin of error, and are more influential when used to guide policy [178].…”

Section: Evolution Of Financial Analysis Methods Influenced By Uncert...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Greenhouse Gas Reduction Potential and Economics of Green Hydrogen via Water Electrolysis: A Systematic Review of Value-Chain-Wide Decarbonization

Du,

Yang,

Zhou

et al. 2024

Sustainability

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Green hydrogen generated via water electrolysis has become an essential energy carrier for achieving carbon neutrality globally because of its versatility in renewable energy consumption and decarbonization applications in hard-to-abate sectors; however, there is a lack of systematic analyses of its abatement potential and economics as an alternative to traditional technological decarbonization pathways. Based on bibliometric analysis and systematic evaluation methods, this study characterizes and analyzes the literature on the Web of Science from 1996 to 2023, identifying research hotspots, methodological models, and research trends in green hydrogen for mitigating climate change across total value chain systems. Our review shows that this research theme has entered a rapid development phase since 2016, with developed countries possessing more scientific results and closer partnerships. Difficult-to-abate sectoral applications and cleaner production are the most famous value chain links, and research hotspots focus on three major influencing factors: the environment; techno-economics; and energy. Green hydrogen applications, which include carbon avoidance and embedding to realize carbon recycling, have considerable carbon reduction potential; however, uncertainty limits the influence of carbon reduction cost assessment indicators based on financial analysis methods for policy guidance. The abatement costs in the decarbonization sector vary widely across value chains, electricity sources, baseline scenarios, technology mixes, and time scenarios. This review shows that thematic research trends are focused on improving and optimizing solutions to uncertainties, as well as studying multisectoral synergies and the application of abatement assessment metrics.

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Model-based step-wise marginal CO2 abatement cost curves to determine least-cost decarbonization pathways for sector-coupled energy systems

Cited by 22 publications

References 63 publications

Cost-Efficient Decarbonization of Portland Cement Production

Cost-Efficient Decarbonization of Portland Cement Production

The Role of Price Incentives in Enhancing Carbon Sequestration in the Forestry Sector of Hungary

Greenhouse Gas Reduction Potential and Economics of Green Hydrogen via Water Electrolysis: A Systematic Review of Value-Chain-Wide Decarbonization

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