Model Calibration of the Liquid Mercury Spallation Target using Evolutionary Neural Networks and Sparse Polynomial Expansions

Abstract

The mercury constitutive model predicting the strain and stress in the target vessel plays a central role in improving the lifetime prediction and future target designs of the mercury targets at the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS). We leverage the experiment strain data collected over multiple years to improve the mercury constitutive model through a combination of large scale simulations of the target behavior and the use of machine learning tools for parameter estimation. We present two interdisciplinary approaches for surrogate-based model calibration of expensive simulations using evolutionary neural networks and sparse polynomial expansions. The experiments and results of the two methods show a very good agreement for the solid mechanics simulation of the mercury spallation target. The proposed methods are used to calibrate the tensile cutoff threshold, mercury density, and mercury speed of sound during intense proton pulse experiments. Using strain experimental data from the mercury target sensors, the newly calibrated simulations achieve 7% average improvement on the signal prediction accuracy and 8% reduction in mean absolute error compared to previously reported reference parameters. Some individual sensors experienced up to 30% improvement in their signal prediction accuracy using the calibrated parameters. The proposed calibrated simulations can significantly aid in fatigue analysis to estimate the mercury target lifetime and integrity, which reduces abrupt target failure and saves tremendous amount of costs. However, an important conclusion from this work points out to a deficiency in the current constitutive model based on the equation of state in capturing the full physics of the spallation reaction. Given that some of calibrated parameters that show a good agreement with the experimental data can be nonphysical mercury properties, we need a more advanced two-phase flow model to capture bubble dynamics and mercury cavitation.