Model calibration using the automatic parameter estimation procedure (PEST) of the North-eastern zone of the Milan Functional Urban Area (Italy)

Alberti, Luca

doi:10.7343/as-2018-336

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…Previous works focused more on developing transport models rather than on carefully reconstructing the groundwater flow directions over time [6]. As numerical models are very important to support the management of groundwater [7][8][9] and both flow and transport are useful in reconstructing the historical contamination of a hot-spot in hydrogeology, the main aim of the present study is to demonstrate that consider flow direction in time is very important for reconstruct the contamination path and provide stronger tools for Public Authorities to identify the polluters. In order to pursue these goals, the paper (1) simulate a 3D groundwater flow with MODFLOW2005 [10] in transient mode (from 1980 to 2018), (2) simulate the fate of dissolved CHC contaminants released by a historical source with MT3DMS [11] (comparing the results previously obtained by a steady-state model [6]), and (3) forecast the dispersion of CHCs in the coming years, thus providing information to Water Managers and the Public Authority that need actions against the polluter and to plan future groundwater abstraction scenarios.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Transient Flow and Transport Modelling of an Historical CHC Source in North-West Milano

Colombo

Alberti

Mazzon

et al. 2019

Water

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Legislative Decree 152/2006 requires Public Authorities to identify the subjects who are responsible for soil and groundwater contamination. In highly urbanized areas with a long industrial history and an elevated number of potential contaminant sources, as in N-W Milano Functional Urban Area (FUA), their identification can be difficult. Since the groundwater flow has showed consistent changes in the last 30 years as in Milan, the problem became even more complicate. The Public Authorities put in charge by the law, i.e., Regione Lombardia and Città Metropolitana Milanese, need new methodologies to assist them in finding the source locations and implementing remediation actions. The aim of this study is, coupling unsteady flow with fate and transport model of Chlorinated Hydrocarbons, to reconstruct the potential impact of a former chemical plant on public wells in the N-W area of Milano. The proposed methodology consists in (a) reconstruction of the piezometric trend over time (1980–2018) by means of a transient flow model (MODFLOW2005 + Parameter Estimation - PEST) and (b) simulation of transport as a function of the flow variations in time. The obtained results were compared with the previous ones obtained with a quasi-steady model (no changes in time-dependent parameters). Finally, a predictive scenario was performed to assess the potential evolution of tetrachloroethylene (PCE) in groundwater; on this frame, strategies to monitor and remediate the contamination were proposed.

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