Model Dinamika Spasial Perubahan Tutupan Lahan dan Daya Dukung Lahan Permukiman Kota Ambon Tahun 2031

Abstract

The rate of population growth that continues to increase in Ambon city with the availability of suitable land is relatively constant, resulting in inconsistencies between land requirements and available land. This study aims to analyze land cover changes in Ambon City in 2013, 2018, 2023 and predict land cover in 2031 using the Cellular Automata Markov Chain (CAMC) and the carrying capacity index of residential areas. The driving factors used in this study were elevation, slope, distance from the coastline, distance from the main road, distance from the river, distance from the center of economic activity and distance from protected areas. Based on the predictions of the Cellular Automata Markov Chain model in 2031, the built-up land cover has increased in area to 4,958.33 ha or 49,583,268 m2, with a predicted population of Ambon City in 2031 of 2,445,961 people. The calculation of the carrying capacity of residential land in 2031 in Ambon City results in the carrying capacity index of residential land of 1.27 m²/capita, meaning that if DDPm > 1 indicates the carrying capacity of residential land is high and still able to accommodate residents to live and build houses in the area. In other words, Ambon City can still accommodate an increase in settlements of 1.27 m²/capita.

Analisis Spasial Temporal Perubahan Tutupan Lahan di Pulau Ternate Provinsi Maluku Utara Citra Satelit Resolusi Tinggi

“…Proses konversi lahan ini mengubah sebagian besar wilayah hutan dan ekosistem alam menjadi lahan pertanian monokultur, yang dapat menyebabkan penurunan kualitas tanah dan kerusakan lingkungan (Mosammam et al 2017;. Perubahan tutupan lahan yang cepat dan tanpa perencanaan yang matang dapat menyebabkan ketidakseimbangan ekosistem (Septory et al, 2023). Misalnya, deforestasi dapat menyebabkan erosi tanah yang meningkat, banjir, dan perubahan pola curah hujan.…”

Spatial Analysis of Landscape Suitability of Ambon City for Settlement Using Geographic Information System

“…Therefore, it is necessary to comprehensively assess the suitability of landscapes for settlements in order to avoid potential negative impacts in the future. Spatial analysis of landscape suitability is an approach that uses spatial data to evaluate the suitability of an area to support a specific purpose, such as human settlement [12], [13]. This method involves the integration of various factors such as topography, geology, hydrology, vegetation and environmental sustainability.…”

Urbanization and Social Change in Ambon City: Challenges and Opportunities for Local Communities

“…This dramatic transformation in the city's society is reflected in significant social, demographic and economic changes. Rapid economic growth in Ambon City, especially in the services and trade sectors, has attracted residents from various parts of Indonesia in search of employment opportunities and a better life (Septory et al, 2023). As a result, Ambon City has experienced a significant increase in population (Latue et al, 2023).…”