Model estimates of the eutrophication of the Baltic Sea in the contemporary and future climate

Ryabchenko, Vladimir; Karlin, L. N.; Isaev, Alexey; Vankevich, Roman; Eremina, Tatjana; Molchanov, Mikhail; Savchuk, Oleg

doi:10.1134/s0001437016010161

Cited by 27 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…In the latter study, the estimate of uncertainties in projections due to model biases in global and regional climate models, nutrient load scenarios and natural variability was an important, novel result. Later, similar approaches were presented also by (Friedland et al 2012;Meier et al 2012a, b;Neumann et al 2012;Omstedt et al 2012;Ryabchenko et al 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 78%

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Baltic Sea ecosystem response to various nutrient load scenarios in present and future climates

et al. 2018

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The Baltic Sea is a shallow, semi-enclosed brackish sea suffering like many other coastal seas from eutrophication caused by human impact. Hence, nutrient load abatement strategies are intensively discussed. With the help of a high-resolution, coupled physical-biogeochemical circulation model we investigate the combined impact of changing nutrient loads from land and changing climate during the 21st century as projected from a global climate model regionalized to the Baltic Sea region. Novel compared to previous studies are an extraordinary spin-up based upon historical reconstructions of atmospheric, nutrient load and runoff forcing, revised nutrient load scenarios and a comparison of nutrient load scenario simulations with and without changing climate. We found in almost all scenario simulations, with differing nutrient inputs, reduced eutrophication and improved ecological state compared to the reference period 1976-2005. This result is a long-lasting consequence of ongoing nutrient load reductions since the 1980s. Only in case of combined high-end nutrient load and climate scenarios, eutrophication is reinforced. Differences compared to earlier studies are explained by the experimental setup including nutrient loads during the historical period and by the projected nutrient loads. We found that the impact of warming climate may amplify the effects of eutrophication and primary production. However, effects of changing climate, within the range of considered greenhouse gas emission scenarios, are smaller than effects of considered nutrient load changes, in particular under low nutrient conditions. Hence, nutrient load reductions following the Baltic Sea Action Plan will lead to improved environmental conditions independently of future climate change.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 78%

“…Meier et al 2011aMeier et al , b, 2012aMeier et al , b, 2017Friedland et al 2012;Neumann et al 2012;Omstedt et al 2012;Ryabchenko et al 2016). For this task, plausible transient scenario simulations are needed.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Baltic Sea ecosystem response to various nutrient load scenarios in present and future climates

et al. 2018

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“…To estimate uncertainties, mini-ensembles of continuous simulations from the present to the future climate driven by two GCMs and two greenhouse gas emission scenarios were produced (Neumann, 2010;Friedland et al, 2012;Meier et al, 2012a;Ryabchenko et al, 2016). In addition, three different Baltic Sea ecosystem models were used to estimate the uncertainties caused by deficiencies in the representation of marine ecosystem processes (e.g., Meier et al, 2011aMeier et al, , 2012b.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Uncertainties in Projections of the Baltic Sea Ecosystem Driven by an Ensemble of Global Climate Models

et al. 2019

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“…In studies of the Baltic Sea, such models have been developed almost in parallel with the growth of eutrophication (Sjöberg et al, 1972;Savchuk, 1984Savchuk, , 1986Stigebrandt and Wulff, 1987;Savchuk and Wulff, 1999Neumann, 2000;Eilola et al, 2009Eilola et al, , 2011. Nowadays, the models are used in a variety of scenario simulations, including those needed for support of nutrient management decisions (e.g., Savchuk, 2000;Gustafsson et al, 2008Gustafsson et al, , 2012Neumann, 2010;Friedland et al, 2012;Meier et al, 2012Meier et al, , 2014Ryabchenko et al, 2016;Meier et al, in preparation). Such support was instrumental in the development and revision (HELCOM, 2013a) of the eutrophication segment of the Baltic Sea Action Plan (HELCOM, 2007(HELCOM, , 2013bBacker et al, 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Large-Scale Nutrient Dynamics in the Baltic Sea, 1970–2016

Savchuk

2018

Front. Mar. Sci.

120

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The Baltic Sea is one of the world's marine areas well-covered by both long-term observations and oceanographic studies. It is also a large coastal area in which eutrophication had already been recognized half a century ago. While the mechanisms of eutrophication are largely understood, several features are less recognized and sometimes neglected, including: (a) natural and anthropogenic North-South and East-West nutrient gradients within the drainage basin and marine ecosystems; (b) the compensatory potential of the interconnectivity between the Baltic Sea basins; (c) long nutrient residence times and high buffer capacity of the system, resulting in slow responses to nutrient load reductions. Particularly important is the interaction of (d) naturally occurring saltwater inflows sporadically ventilating deep water layers and (e) a partly man-made intensification of biological oxygen consumption. Resulting redox alterations of biogeochemical nitrogen and phosphorus cycles are locked in a "vicious circle" that promotes cyanobacterial nitrogen fixation, thereby hindering nitrogen load reduction and sustaining an elevated trophic state. This tight coupling of natural environmental variation and human impacts complicates both scientific studies and management recommendations. Our primary objective is to describe all these features and mechanisms with the best available data on nutrient loads, and unique estimates of the basin-wide nutrient pools. These data are presented as both long-term time series and empirical nutrient budgets. The analysis is supplemented by results of biogeochemical modeling. A second, more practical objective is to make these time series available to the community.

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Model estimates of the eutrophication of the Baltic Sea in the contemporary and future climate

Cited by 27 publications

References 19 publications

Baltic Sea ecosystem response to various nutrient load scenarios in present and future climates

Baltic Sea ecosystem response to various nutrient load scenarios in present and future climates

Uncertainties in Projections of the Baltic Sea Ecosystem Driven by an Ensemble of Global Climate Models

Large-Scale Nutrient Dynamics in the Baltic Sea, 1970–2016

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