Model for Inverting the Leaf Area Index of Green Plums by Integrating IoT Environmental Monitoring Data and Leaf Relative Content of Chlorophyll Values

Abstract

The quantitative inversion of the leaf area index (LAI) of green plum trees is crucial for orchard field management and yield prediction. The data on the relative content of chlorophyll (SPAD) in leaves and environmental data from orchards show a significant correlation with LAI. Effectively integrating these two data types for LAI inversion is important to explore. This study proposes a multi−source decision fusion LAI inversion model for green plums based on their adjusted determination coefficient (MDF−ADRS). First, three statistical methods—Pearson, Spearman rank, and Kendall rank correlation analyses—were used to measure the linear relationships between variables, and the six environmental factors most highly correlated with LAI were selected from the orchard’s environmental data. Then, using multivariate statistical analysis methods, LAI inversion models based on environmental feature factors (EFs−PM) and SPAD (SPAD−PM) were established. Finally, a weight optimization allocation strategy was employed to achieve a multi−source decision fusion LAI inversion model for green plums. This strategy adaptively allocates weights based on the predictive performance of each data source. Unlike traditional models that rely on fixed weights or a single data source, this approach allows the model to increase the influence of a key data source when its predictive strength is high and reduce noise interference when it is weaker. This dynamic adjustment not only enhances the model’s robustness under varying environmental conditions but also effectively mitigates potential biases when a particular data source becomes temporarily unreliable. Our experimental results show that the MDF−ADRS model achieves an R2 of 0.88 and an RMSE of 0.39 in the validation set, outperforming other fusion methods. Compared to the EFs−PM and SPAD−PM models, the R2 increased by 0.19 and 0.26, respectively, and the RMSE decreased by 0.16 and 0.22. This model effectively integrates multiple sources of data from green plum orchards, enabling rapid inversion and improving the accuracy of green plum LAI estimation, providing a technical reference for monitoring the growth and managing the production of green plums.