Model of Forecasting the Social News Events on the Basis of Stochastic Dynamics Methods

One of the problems of forecasting events in news feeds, is the development of models which allow for work with semi structured information space of text documents. This article describes a model for forecasting events in news feeds, which is based on the use of stochastic dynamics of changes in the structure of non-stationary time series in news clusters (states of the information space) on the basis of use of diffusion approximation. Forecasting events in a news feed is based on their text description, vectorization, and finding the cosine value of the angle between the given vector and the centroids of various information space semantic clusters. Changes over time in the cosine value of such angles between the above vector and centroids can be represented as a point wandering on the [0, 1] segment. This segment contains a trap at the event occurrence threshold point, which the wandering point may eventually fall into. When creating the model, we have considered probability patterns of transitions between states in the information space. On the basis of this approach, we have derived a nonlinear second-order differential equation; formulated and solved the boundary value problem of forecasting news events, which allowed obtaining theoretical time dependence on the probability density function of the parameter distribution of non-stationary time series, which describe the information space evolution. The results of simulating the events instance probability dependence on time (with sets of parameter values of the developed model, which have been experimentally determined for already occurred events) show that the model is consistent and adequate (all the news events which have been used for the model verification occur with high values of probability (within the order of 80%), or if these are fictitious events, they can only occur over the course of inadmissible long time).

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“…The above approach to building a model to analyze the formation of events in news feeds was generally considered in papers [31][32][33][34][35].…”

Section: Deriving the Distribution Function For Thementioning

confidence: 99%

Stochastic Diffusion Model for Analysis of Dynamics and Forecasting Events in News Feeds

2021

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Diffusion Model for Forecasting Events in News Feeds

Zhukov

Andrianova

Novikova

2021

J. Phys.: Conf. Ser.

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On the basis of the diffusion theory, we suggested a model for forecasting event in news feeds, which is based on the use of stochastic dynamics of changes in the structure of non-stationary time series in news text clusters (states of the information space). Forecasting events in a news feed is based on their text description, vectorization, and finding the cosine value of the angle between the given vector and the centroids of various information space semantic clusters. Changes over time in the cosine value of such angle between the above vector and centroids can be represented as a point wandering on [0,1] segment. This segment contains a trap at the event occurrence threshold point. The wandering point can fall into this trap over time. We have considered probability patterns of transitions between states in the information space. We have derived a nonlinear second-order differential equation; formulated and solved the boundary value problem of forecasting news events. We have obtained theoretical time dependence for the probability density function of the parameter distribution of non-stationary time series that describe the information space evolution. The results of simulating the time dependence of the event probability (with sets of parameter values of the developed model, which have been experimentally determined for already occurred events) show that the model is consistent and adequate. Experimental verification of the proposed model was carried out using a corpus of texts written in Russian.

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Model of Forecasting the Social News Events on the Basis of Stochastic Dynamics Methods

Cited by 2 publications

References 2 publications

Stochastic Diffusion Model for Analysis of Dynamics and Forecasting Events in News Feeds

Stochastic Diffusion Model for Analysis of Dynamics and Forecasting Events in News Feeds

Diffusion Model for Forecasting Events in News Feeds

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