Model Spread in the Tropical Cyclone Frequency and Seed Propensity Index Across Global Warming and ENSO‐Like Perturbations

Hsieh, Tsang-Yen; Yang, Wenchang; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Zhao, Ming

doi:10.1029/2021gl097157

Cited by 13 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 36 publications

(94 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Similarly, Emanuel (2022) argued that the climatological TC frequency is controlled more by the environmental conditions of the basin in which the TC forms rather than the frequency of TC seeds. Despite this, other studies have shown that frequency of TC seeds strongly influences TC frequency (Hsieh et al., 2022), although this relationship could depend on the definition of “seeds” and the time scale considered.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 92%

Influence of African Easterly Wave Suppression on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity in a Convection‐Permitting Model

Danso

Patricola

Bercos‐Hickey

2022

Geophysical Research Letters

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Understanding the physical controls on tropical cyclone (TC) frequency represents a major challenge, as there is no theory to explain why the global annual number of TCs is relatively constant in historical observations and no consensus on future changes in TC frequency (Sobel et al., 2021). Pre-existing low-pressure disturbances, or TC "seeds," may trigger TC genesis, and have been identified as one possible factor in determining TC frequency. The typical Atlantic TC seed is provided by African easterly waves (AEWs), which are synoptic-scale disturbances that grow off of the baroclinic and barotropic instability of the African easterly jet (AEJ) (Burpee, 1972). AEWs generate between 5°N and 30°N over tropical northern Africa (Kiladis et al., 2006) and propagate westward over the tropical Atlantic Ocean.There is a strong connection between AEWs and Atlantic TCs on the synoptic time scale (Dieng et al., 2017;Landsea et al., 1998), with about 60%-80% of major Atlantic hurricanes originating from AEWs (Landsea, 1993;Russell et al., 2017). However, some studies have suggested that the relationship between TC frequency and AEWs may not be as straightforward as previously thought, especially on climate time scales. For instance, results from Hodges (2001) andHopsch et al. (2007) suggest that the relationship between AEWs and Atlantic TC activity could depend on the period considered, with the former finding them to be correlated for one period whereas the latter found them to be uncorrelated for a different period using the same data product. Moreover, Thorncroft and Hodges (2001) showed that only AEWs leaving the West African coast with significant low-level amplitudes, rather than the total number of AEWs, may influence the seasonal Atlantic

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 92%

Influence of African Easterly Wave Suppression on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity in a Convection‐Permitting Model

Danso

Patricola

Bercos‐Hickey

2022

Geophysical Research Letters

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Building on previous TC seed research (Hsieh et al., 2020; Yang et al., 2021), Hsieh et al. (2022) examined GCM experiments and found that seed frequency strongly influences TC frequency across climate perturbations. Similar to Vecchi et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…(2020) and Hsieh et al. (2022), Sugi et al. (2020) used high resolution GCM data to examine future changes in TC and TC seed frequency.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To better understand the future of TC genesis, recent studies have examined the response of TC seeds to climate change, where TC seeds are defined as pre-TC synoptic scale disturbances (Hsieh et al, 2020(Hsieh et al, , 2022Sugi et al, 2020;Vecchi et al, 2019;Yamada et al, 2021). In these studies, the effects of climate change on TC seeds, which are not limited to AEWs, and the seed-TC relationship are unclear.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, the response of TC seeds to climate change was inconsistent, with seeds increasing due to surface warming but decreasing due to higher CO 2 (Vecchi et al, 2019). Hsieh et al (2020) and Hsieh et al (2022) also used model data to examine the response of TCs to increased CO 2 and surface warming. Hsieh et al (2020) found that with uniform surface warming and CO 2 doubling, the response of TCs can be attributed to the response of TC seeds.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

The Relationship Between African Easterly Waves and Tropical Cyclones in Historical and Future Climates in the HighResMIP‐PRIMAVERA Simulations

et al. 2023

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Tropical cyclones (TCs) and their associated heavy precipitation, high winds, and storm surges are both deadly and destructive, leading to losses in the United States that can often exceed $1 billion for an individual event (Cerveny et al., 2017;NOAA, 2021;Yue et al., 2012). The genesis of these extreme events hinges on the co-occurrence of multiple environmental factors, including warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs), a moist mid-troposphere, weak vertical wind shear, and an initial precursor or "seed" disturbance (

show abstract

Characteristics and trends of Atlantic tropical cyclones that do and do not develop from African easterly waves

Bercos‐Hickey,

Patricola

2024

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) are known to develop from African easterly waves (AEWs) that propagate across North Africa and out over the Atlantic Ocean. The relationship between AEWs and TCs has been the subject of numerous previous studies. There are, however, many Atlantic TCs that do not have AEW origins. In this study, we provide a novel analysis of the characteristics and trends of Atlantic TCs both with and without AEW origins using 43 years of observational and reanalysis data. To conduct this research, we identified TCs with and without AEW origins from the observational record between 1980 and 2022, and ran objective tracking algorithms on reanalysis data to identify the AEWs and TCs during this time period. We found statistically significant differences in the characteristics and environments of TCs with and without AEW origins. TCs with AEW origins are stronger and costlier, experience more favorable environmental conditions, and are more likely to make landfall in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean when compared to TCs without AEW origins. Additionally, the 43‐year increasing trend in Atlantic TC activity is primarily driven by an increase in TCs with AEW origins that is associated with increasing AEW frequency and strength, with anthropogenic aerosols potentially driving this trend. In contrast, we found no trend in TCs without AEW origins.

show abstract

Model Spread in the Tropical Cyclone Frequency and Seed Propensity Index Across Global Warming and ENSO‐Like Perturbations

Cited by 13 publications

References 36 publications

Influence of African Easterly Wave Suppression on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity in a Convection‐Permitting Model

Influence of African Easterly Wave Suppression on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity in a Convection‐Permitting Model

The Relationship Between African Easterly Waves and Tropical Cyclones in Historical and Future Climates in the HighResMIP‐PRIMAVERA Simulations

Characteristics and trends of Atlantic tropical cyclones that do and do not develop from African easterly waves

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About