Model validation for the August 10, 1996 WSCC system outage

Kosterev, Dmitry; Taylor, C.W.; Mittelstadt, W.A.

doi:10.1109/59.780909

Cited by 781 publications

(330 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…4; but which are herein called simply cascades), during which individuals in a population exhibit herd-like behavior because they are making decisions based on the actions of other individuals rather than relying on their own information about the problem. Although they are generated by quite different mechanisms, cascades in social and economic systems (3)(4)(5)(6) are similar to cascading failures in physical infrastructure networks (7,8) and complex organizations (9) in that initial failures increase the likelihood of subsequent failures, leading to eventual outcomes that, like the August 10, 1996 cascading failure in the western United States power transmission grid (8), are extremely difficult to predict, even when the properties of the individual components are well understood. Not as newsworthy, but just as important as the cascades themselves, is that the very same systems routinely display great stability in the presence of continual small failures and shocks that are at least as large as the shocks that ultimately generate a cascade.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

A simple model of global cascades on random networks

Watts

2002

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

2,184

1,974

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The origin of large but rare cascades that are triggered by small initial shocks is a phenomenon that manifests itself as diversely as cultural fads, collective action, the diffusion of norms and innovations, and cascading failures in infrastructure and organizational networks. This paper presents a possible explanation of this phenomenon in terms of a sparse, random network of interacting agents whose decisions are determined by the actions of their neighbors according to a simple threshold rule. Two regimes are identified in which the network is susceptible to very large cascades-herein called global cascadesthat occur very rarely. When cascade propagation is limited by the connectivity of the network, a power law distribution of cascade sizes is observed, analogous to the cluster size distribution in standard percolation theory and avalanches in self-organized criticality. But when the network is highly connected, cascade propagation is limited instead by the local stability of the nodes themselves, and the size distribution of cascades is bimodal, implying a more extreme kind of instability that is correspondingly harder to anticipate. In the first regime, where the distribution of network neighbors is highly skewed, it is found that the most connected nodes are far more likely than average nodes to trigger cascades, but not in the second regime. Finally, it is shown that heterogeneity plays an ambiguous role in determining a system's stability: increasingly heterogeneous thresholds make the system more vulnerable to global cascades; but an increasingly heterogeneous degree distribution makes it less vulnerable.

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mentioning

confidence: 99%

A simple model of global cascades on random networks

Watts

2002

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

2,184

1,974

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“…One of the first serious attempts at verification was carried out in the USA in connection with the analysis of a system emergency in the Western power system with more than 30 GW of disconnecting the load [6]. The verification was performed by comparing the simulation results with the data of PMU, see figure 1.…”

Section: Problem Of Verification Electric Power Systems Simulation Tomentioning

confidence: 99%

Development Concept of Guaranteed Verification Electric Power System Simulation Tools and Its Realization

Gusev

Suvorov

Sulaymanov

2015

MATEC Web of Conferences

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Abstract. The analysis of existing problem reliability and verification of widespread electric power systems (EPS) simulation tools is presented in this article. Everything simulation tools are based on the using of numerical methods for ordinary differential equations. Described the concept of guaranteed verification EPS simulation tools and the structure of its realization are based using the Simulator having properties of continuous , without decomposition three-phase EPS simulation in real time and on an unlimited range with guaranteed accuracy. The information from the Simulator can be verified by using data only quasi-steady-state regime received from the SCADA and such Simulator can be applied as the standard model for verification any EPS simulation tools.

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“…To determine the λ i , y [k] can be written in a matrix format as To increase estimation accuracy, the number of the samples in the data, N, is usually chosen to be greater than 2*n to form a set of over-determined equations in (3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8). A least-squares (LS) algorithm is applied to solve the equations.…”

Section: A Review On the Prony Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, an initial effort was made by [Kosterev et al 1999] to build a component-based model for simulating the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) reaction right before the breakup of August 10, 1996. Figure 1-1 shows that the simulation data did not match the field measurement data.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Oscillation Detection Algorithm Development Summary Report and Test Plan

Zhou¹,

Huang²,

Tuffner³

et al. 2009

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARYSmall signal stability problems are one of the major threats to grid stability and reliability in California and the western U.S. power grid. An unstable oscillatory mode can cause large-amplitude oscillations and may result in system breakup and largescale blackouts. There have been several incidents of system-wide oscillations. Of them, the most notable is the August 10, 1996 western system breakup produced as a result of undamped system-wide oscillations. There is a great need for real-time monitoring of small-signal oscillations in the system. In power systems, a small-signal oscillation is the result of poor electromechanical damping. Considerable understanding and literature have been developed on the small-signal stability problem over the past 50+ years. These studies have been mainly based on a linearized system model and eigenvalue analysis of its characteristic matrix. However, its practical feasibility is greatly limited because power system models have been found inadequate in describing realtime operating conditions. Significant efforts have been devoted to monitoring system oscillatory behaviors from real-time measurements in the past 20 years. The deployment of phasor measurement units (PMU) provides high-precision time-synchronized data needed for estimating oscillation modes. Measurement-based modal analysis, also known as ModeMeter, uses real-time phasor measurements to estimate system oscillation modes and their damping. Low damping indicates potential system stability issues. Oscillation alarms can be issued when the power system is lightly damped. A good oscillation alarm tool can provide time for operators to take remedial reaction and reduce the probability of a system breakup as a result of a light damping condition. To facilitate ModeMeter development and evaluation, the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) has conducted a number of system tests in the past decade. The tests include large signal tests through insertion of the 1,400 MW Chief Joseph brake resistance, mid-level signal tests through ±125 MW modulation of Pacific DC Intertie (PDCI) real power set values, and noise probing tests through ±10-20 MW modulation of the PDCI power. Recently, the system tests have advanced to a weekly basis, towards future continuous tests and real-time oscillation monitoring. Real-time oscillation monitoring requires ModeMeter algorithms to have the capability to work with various kinds of measurements: disturbance data (ringdown signals), noise probing data, and ambient data.Several measurement-based modal analysis algorithms have been developed. They include Prony analysis, Regularized Robust Recursive Least Square (R3LS) algorithm, Yule-Walker algorithm, Yule-Walker Spectrum algorithm, and the N4SID algorithm. Each has been shown to be effective for certain situations, but not as effective for some other situations. For example, the traditional Prony analysis works well for disturbance data but not for ambient data, while Yule-Walker is designed for ambient data only....

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Model validation for the August 10, 1996 WSCC system outage

Cited by 781 publications

References 5 publications

A simple model of global cascades on random networks

A simple model of global cascades on random networks

Development Concept of Guaranteed Verification Electric Power System Simulation Tools and Its Realization

Oscillation Detection Algorithm Development Summary Report and Test Plan

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