MODELAGEM PREDITIVA DA ESPÉCIE Lychnophora pohlii SCH. BIP., NO ESTADO DE MINAS GERAIS

Abstract

O objetivo deste trabalho foi determinar a distribuição potencial da espécie Lychnophora pohlli em Minas Gerais durante as flutuações climáticas no Quaternário, além de identificar a área de abrangência da espécie em Unidades de Conservação. O algoritmo Maxent foi selecionado para relacionar a ocorrência da espécie com variáveis bioclimáticas que refletem diferentes condições de temperatura, precipitação e sazonalidade. Os modelos foram validados por meio do índice AUC e a influência das variáveis sobre a distribuição das espécies foi avaliada por meio do teste Jackknife. Os mapas resultantes prevêem áreas de ocorrência restrita para a espécie, ocorrendo em uma porção da Serra do Espinhaço. Os modelos evidenciaram uma redução de área ambientalmente adequada da espécie do Holoceno para o período atual e aumento considerável dos dias atuais para o futuro. Os modelos apresentaram excelente desempenho, visto que os índices AUC variaram entre 0,971 a 0,997. A modelagem de distribuição de espécies mostrou-se bastante útil em fornecer contribuições para o estudo de questões ecológicas sobre a distribuição da espécie, além de ser uma importante ferramenta para planos de conservação da biodiversidade. Recomenda-se o uso de outras variáveis microclimáticas que possam contribuir com a predição e interpretação da distribuição geográfica de espécies endêmicas.Palavra-chave: espécies Ameaçadas, Maxent, modelo de distribuição potencial, unidades de conservação. PREDICTIVE MODELING OF THE SPECIES LYCHNOPHORA POHLII SCH. BIP, IN THE STATE OF MINAS GERAIS ABSTRACT:The objective of this work was to determine the potential distribution of Lychnophora pohlli in Minas Gerais during climatic fluctuations in the Quaternary, in addition to identifying the area of coverage of the species in Conservation Units. The Maxent algorithm was selected to relate the occurrence of the species with bioclimatic variables that reflect different temperature, precipitation and seasonality conditions. The models were validated by AUC index and the influence of the variables on the distribution of the species were evaluated by the Jackknife test. The resulting maps provide areas of restricted occurrence for the species, occurring in a portion of the Serra do Espinhaço. The models showed environmentally adequate reduction of the Holocene species for the current period and a considerable increase from the present to the future. The models showed excellent performance, since the AUC values ranged from 0,971 - 0,997. The modeling of species distribution has proved to be useful in providing contributions to the study of ecological issues on the species distribution, besides being an important tool for biodiversity conservation plans. It is recommended to use other microclimatic variables that may contribute to the prediction and interpretation of the geographic distribution of endemic species.Keywords: conservation units, endangered species, Maxent, potential distribution models. DOI:

PREDICTIVE MODELING OF Mimosa tenuiflora (WILLD) POIRET: HOW CAN CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECT ITS POTENTIAL DISTRIBUTION RANGE?

“…Regarding the modeling for the present, the AUC value obtained (0.94) was considered high, which indicates a suitable adjustment of the model used and high predictive power (COSTA et al, 2018). The areas of suitability almost entirely occupied Ceará and Rio Grande do Norte, which suggests that these states are highly recommended for the creation of conservation banks in situ, enabling the conservation of genetic materials of this species.…”

“…New studies should be carried out to allow the comparison between the areas, through the use of other variables, such as soil characteristics, relief and economic factors, which can help in decision-making for commercial implementation or conservationist purposes (NABOUT et al, 2016). The prediction tool can have a positive influence on the maintenance of population ecosystems, since by analyzing climate variations, areas can be defined that are conducive to the implementation of new conservation strategies, such as in situ conservation banks (COSTA et al, 2018). Furthermore, the map of suitability can be used as a tool for the definition of suitable sites for commercial deployment, determining an environment where the species will have the appropriate conditions for its proper development.…”

“…The variables that were highly correlated, i.e., had a value of r ≥ 0.85 were excluded, either this positive or negative value (WEI et al, 2017). From this procedure, the multicollinearity between the variables is reduced, and the model provides accurate information without overfitting the contribution of climate variables (COSTA et al, 2018;WEI et al, 2017).…”

Modeling the spatial distribution of a tropical dry forest tree facing climate change

“…In this sense, ecological niche modeling (ENM) is a study that performs the correlation between the geographical occurrence of a species and a set of environmental variables, to predict the mechanisms that govern its spatial distributions (Yang et al, 2020). In recent years, ENM has become an increasingly important tool to address various issues in ecology, such as conservation practices, indicating regions with suitability for the occurrence of the species evaluated (Costa et al, 2018;Chagas et al, 2020).…”

“…These studies contribute to the investigation of priority areas for conservation, since they show the locations potentially suitable for a given species in protected areas, allowing their maintenance, avoiding the loss of genetic diversity and its ecosystem services (Costa et al, 2018;Chagas et al, 2020). This approach allows us to subsidize decisionmaking in programs for the recovery of degraded areas, since the species chosen for the program may have niche limitations in certain regions (Greiser et al, 2020).…”