Modeling and Analysis of the Dynamic Model of Bali Starling (Leucopsar Rothschildi) Breeding in West Bali National Park

Abstract

Antara, the official news agency of the state, reported a record-breaking population of 303 Bali starlings in the West Bali National Park (WBNP) in June 2020, attributing this achievement to the park's captive reproduction initiative. This paper presents a study on the dynamic equilibrium of Bali Starlings and proposes a mathematical model for analyzing this dynamic. The research also examines parameters ensuring the stability of the captive breeding model for Bali starlings in WBNP in a sustainable manner. The Bali starlings are categorized into two groups: those in the wild and those in captive breeding, with hatched eggs in captivity included in the latter. The dynamic model is analyzed for system stability around the endemic critical point using the Routh-Hurwitz stability criteria. As an illustrative example, a simulation is conducted to assess the model's suitability under real field conditions. The model analysis reveals that the existence of an endemic critical point can be maintained if the percentage of stolen Bali starlings or eggs reintroduced to the wild is less than the difference between the percentage of Bali starlings laying eggs and the population growth rate in WBNP. Furthermore, the stability of the endemic critical point is confirmed as long as the percentage of Bali starlings laying eggs exceeds the population growth rate. This dynamic model offers a valuable tool for evaluating the sustainability of Bali starling breeding programs and optimizing the benefits associated with their conservation efforts.