Modeling and Forecasting of Provision of Energy Security of Ukraine with Energy Resources

Abstract

The article proposes to use the models of provision of the energy security of Ukraine with energy resources in the context of globalization as a descriptive-model representation of the process for describing, analyzing, evaluating, managing and forecasting the state's fuel and energy resources (FER). It has been determined that the shortage of energy resources is mainly caused by their irrational use by all market entities, as well as their noticeable decrease in production within the state. Their import from abroad leads to a weakening of the position of Ukraine's energy independence in the international market. A system of functional dependencies of individual FER determinants is proposed. It has been established that the path to energy independence of Ukraine is impossible without careful and rational use of resources. It has been established that the modeling process acts as a kind of tool for the authorities in shaping energy policy in Ukraine. A model of an organizational mechanism for ensuring the efficiency of the use of fuel and energy resources at various hierarchical levels is proposed, where subjects of regulatory and supervisory activities are represented within each level, their functional relationships and influence are regulated by the current legislation. Forecasting and assessment of energy independence of the national economy of Ukraine until 2035 was carried out.