Modeling and forecasting of wheat of South Asian region countries and role in food security

Yonar, Aynur; Yonar, Harun; Mishra, Pradeep; Kumari, Binita; Abotaleb, Mostafa; Badr, Amr

doi:10.1007/s43674-021-00027-3

Cited by 7 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…Assuming the presence of inoculum and susceptible cultivars, the primary goal of this study was to provide a general and objective overview of the background climate conditions for the development of MoT over a region where wheat cultivation is important for food security (Yonar et al 2021), and whose agricultural landscape is described as being highly exposed to the shocks associated with weather and climate variability (Amarnath et al 2017). At the time of writing, MoT has only been officially reported in Bangladesh (Malaker et al 2016), though unofficial reports of the disease have also been published in the popular media in eastern India, prompting the temporary banning of wheat cultivation in some areas (cf.…”

Section: Climate Suitability For Mot In Asiamentioning

confidence: 99%

Variable climate suitability for wheat blast (Magnaporthe oryzae pathotype Triticum) in Asia: results from a continental-scale modeling approach

2022

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Crop fungal diseases constitute a major cause of yield loss. The development of crop disease monitoring and forecasting tools is an important effort to aid farmers in adapting to climate variability and change. Recognizing weather as a main driver of fungal disease outbreaks, this work assesses the climate suitability for wheat blast (Magnaporthe oryzae pathotype Triticum, MoT) development in Asian wheat-producing countries. MoT was reported for the first time in Bangladesh in 2016 and could spread to other countries, provided that environmental conditions are suitable to spore development, distribution, and infection. With results from a generic infection model driven by air temperature and humidity, and motivated by the necessity to assess the potential distribution of MoT based on the response to weather drivers only, we quantify potential MoT infection events across Asia for the period 1980–2019. The results show a potential higher incidence of MoT in Bangladesh, Myanmar, and some areas of India, where the number of potential infection (NPI) events averaged up to 15 during wheat heading. Interannual trends show an increase in NPI over those three countries, which in turns show their higher interannual variability. Cold/dry conditions in countries such as Afghanistan and Pakistan appear to render them unlikely candidates for MoT establishment. The relationship between seasonal climate anomalies and NPI suggests a greater association with relative humidity than with temperature. These results could help to focus future efforts to develop management strategies where weather conditions are conducive for the establishment of MoT.

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Section: Climate Suitability For Mot In Asiamentioning

confidence: 99%

Variable climate suitability for wheat blast (Magnaporthe oryzae pathotype Triticum) in Asia: results from a continental-scale modeling approach

2022

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“…These crops not only serve as a primary source of income for millions of farmers worldwide [3,7,8] but also have extensive applications in biofuels, industrial materials, and other non-food products, thereby contributing to economic growth and sustainability [9][10][11]. Among these crops, maize is notably one of the most extensively cultivated across diverse agro-ecological zones [3,[12][13][14][15]. However, the productivity and sustainability of these crops are challenged by several abiotic stresses, including drought, salinity, high and low temperature, pesticide exposure, and heavy metal contamination, which threaten global food security [4,[16][17][18].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Melatonin-Mediated Molecular Responses in Plants: Enhancing Stress Tolerance and Mitigating Environmental Challenges in Cereal Crop Production

Muhammad,

Ahmad,

Shen

2024

IJMS

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Cereal crops are crucial for global food security; however, they are susceptible to various environmental stresses that significantly hamper their productivity. In response, melatonin has emerged as a promising regulator, offering potential benefits for stress tolerance and crop growth. This review explores the effects of melatonin on maize, sorghum, millet, rice, barley, and wheat, aiming to enhance their resilience to stress. The application of melatonin has shown promising outcomes, improving water use efficiency and reducing transpiration rates in millet under drought stress conditions. Furthermore, it enhances the salinity and heavy metal tolerance of millet by regulating the activity of stress-responsive genes. Similarly, melatonin application in sorghum enhances its resistance to high temperatures, low humidity, and nutrient deficiency, potentially involving the modulation of antioxidant defense and aspects related to photosynthetic genes. Melatonin also exerts protective effects against drought, salinity, heavy metal, extreme temperatures, and waterlogging stresses in maize, wheat, rice, and barley crops by decreasing reactive oxygen species (ROS) production through regulating the antioxidant defense system. The molecular reactions of melatonin upregulated photosynthesis, antioxidant defense mechanisms, the metabolic pathway, and genes and downregulated stress susceptibility genes. In conclusion, melatonin serves as a versatile tool in cereal crops, bolstering stress resistance and promoting sustainable development. Further investigations are warranted to elucidate the underlying molecular mechanisms and refine application techniques to fully harness the potential role of melatonin in cereal crop production systems.

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“…Pettitt's, standard normal homogeneity (SNH) and Buishand's range tests. Yonar et al [13] modeled and forecasted the production of wheat in South Asian region countries, viz. Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Nepal, and Pakistan, on utilizing ARIMA and Holt's linear trend models.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Statistical Modeling for Analysis of Growth and Trend Pattern of Wheat Production in Selected States of India

Kumar,

Prakash,

Rana

2024

AJRCS

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In the present paper, the time series analysis of wheat production in some selected states of India has been carried out by fitting well-known statistical models, viz. linear, exponential and cubic models. The selection of wheat growing states has been made on the basis of criteria of higher production and consistent growth pattern. The secondary time series data on wheat production have been utilized for the analysis. The trend values have been computed on fitting the concerned models, and the validity of the models has been tested on using the chi-square test statistic. Moreover, the coefficient of determination ( ), root mean square error (RMSE), and relative mean absolute percentage error (RMAPE) have been computed to reveal the suitability of the concerned models for exploring the trend patterns of wheat production in the concerned states of India. The findings of the investigation reveal that the above mentioned models are appropriate for forecasting of future trend of wheat production in the concerned states.

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Modeling and forecasting of wheat of South Asian region countries and role in food security

Cited by 7 publications

References 21 publications

Variable climate suitability for wheat blast (Magnaporthe oryzae pathotype Triticum) in Asia: results from a continental-scale modeling approach

Variable climate suitability for wheat blast (Magnaporthe oryzae pathotype Triticum) in Asia: results from a continental-scale modeling approach

Melatonin-Mediated Molecular Responses in Plants: Enhancing Stress Tolerance and Mitigating Environmental Challenges in Cereal Crop Production

Statistical Modeling for Analysis of Growth and Trend Pattern of Wheat Production in Selected States of India

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