Modeling and prediction of Turkey’s electricity consumption using Artificial Neural Networks

Turkish aggregate electricity demand: An outlook to 2020

“…Comparing to the previous projections in Table 3 12 it can be seen that these forecasts are lower than, Ozturk and Ceylan [8], Hamzacebi [10] and Akay and Atak [11], but higher than Erdogdu [7] and Kavaklioglu et al [9]. 13 …”

“…8 GDP increased by 9%, prices fell by 12%, and electricity consumption increased by 20% in 1976. 9 Turkish inflation was above 64% and there was a balance of payments 'crisis' in 1979, with a subsequent large decrease in GDP in 1980 that led to a military coup [28]. The preferred model in Table 1 does not include any dynamic terms, suggesting the short run and long run income and price elasticities are 0.17 and -0.11 respectively.…”

“…These include the unusually high changes in Turkish GDP, real electricity prices, and electricity consumption in 1976 8 , the compulsory electricity cuts that were introduced in the early 1970s and peaked in 1980 (as illustrated in Figure 6) [27], and the oil price hike in 1979 that according to Taymaz and Yilmaz [28] led to the worst political instability in Turkish history. 9 The effects of which are unlikely to be captured adequately by the estimated income and price elasticities (being outside the usual 'norm').…”

“…Source: [4] and [1] There are only a limited number of previous academic studies focussing on Turkish aggregate electricity demand, although there has been an increase since the early 2000s. These include Bakirtas et al [6], Erdogdu [7], Ozturk and Ceylan [8], Kavaklioglu et al [9], Hamzacebi [10] and Akay and Atak [11]; some of which attempt to identify a Turkish aggregate electricity demand relationship, some of which attempt to forecast future aggregate electricity demand, and some of which attempt to both; these are briefly reviewed below. Bakirtas et al [6] used the cointegration technique with annual data to explore the relationship between per capita aggregate electricity consumption, income per capita, and price for the period 1962 to 1996.…”

Comparative study of a building energy performance software (KEP-IYTE-ESS) and ANN-based building heat load estimation

“…Fig. 4 shows the basic architecture of the network which consists of dendrites, axon and synapse and artificial neuron [47].…”