Modeling and Simulation: A Study on Predicting the Outbreak of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia

Msmali, Ahmed Hussein; Meetei, Mutum Zico; Mechai, Idir; Ahmadini, Abdullah Ali H.

doi:10.1155/2021/5522928

Cited by 7 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 53 publications

(48 reference statements)

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“…Individuals can protect themselves, their families, and communities by social distancing, wearing face masks, washing hands frequently, and most importantly getting vaccinated. Mathematical models conducted exclusively in the Saudi population to predict biological and epidemiological predispositions toward COVID-19 found that social distancing, personal hygiene, and travel restrictions were vital measures to prevent the outbreak's spread ( 9 ). Evaluating whether individuals aware, embrace, or ignore these measures can provide authorities with insight into how open a given community or region is to adopting measures to deal with the pandemic.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Knowledge, Attitude, and Psychological Impacts of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia

Alanazi

Bahjri

2022

Front. Public Health

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BackgroundThe world has been facing an unprecedented pandemic of COVID-19 with over 336 million people infected and millions of deaths. This required an enormous communication effort response from governments, international, and individuals to keep the public informed about the outbreak. When a pandemic affects communities, individuals' knowledge and attitude are important factors to contain the outbreak. Thus, the purpose of this study is to measure individuals' knowledge and attitude toward COVID-19 and ascertain whether a need exists for mental health services for those who were affected by the pandemic.MethodsA cross-sectional design was used to measure the knowledge, attitude, and psychological impacts about the COVID-19 pandemic among the Saudi population. Research participants were recruited using a snowball sampling technique through the social media platform WhatsApp. A total of 482 eligible individuals participated from various locations in Saudi Arabia represented almost all Saudi regions. The questionnaire consisted of seven questions evaluating knowledge, seven gauging attitudes, and 16 questions assessing anxiety and perceived need for mental healthcare services.ResultsA modest level of knowledge (59%) was found among the Saudi population sampled about the COVID-19 pandemic, and satisfactory knowledge (>80%) about its preventive measures. Anxiety and stress existed among the participants (79% obsessed with COVID-19), with an 88% approval rate for obtaining mental health services for individuals highly affected by the pandemic.ConclusionThere is a need to increase awareness and provide continuous updates regarding the pandemic situation. Promoting access to mental health services is critical, as well as finding creative and suitable strategies to deliver mental health services to those who need them.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Knowledge, Attitude, and Psychological Impacts of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia

Alanazi

Bahjri

2022

Front. Public Health

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“…When a person has been infected but is not exhibiting symptoms, that time is referred to as the incubation phase. It makes sense to represent the pandemic using a different compartment representing exposed humans without virus spreaders because the coronavirus sickness has a protracted incubation period [22]. In the SEIR model, it is assumed that the population s size is fixed and that there are no important dynamics during the long duration.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Any numerical method can be used to solve the aforementioned set of equations (22)(23)(24)(25), and the behavior of SARS-Cov-2 can be predicted via simulation. The aforementioned system of equations can be expressed when discrete time ∆𝜏 is involved, shown as follows:…”

Section: Susceptible Exposed Infectious Recovered (Seir) Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation of COVID-19 Epidemic from Potential Viral Loads in Saudi Arabian Wastewater Treatment Plants

Meetei,

Msmali,

Ahmadini

et al. 2023

Preprint

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SARS-CoV-2 is a contagious respiratory virus that has been discovered in sewage, human waste, and wastewater treatment facilities. Wastewater surveillance has been considered one of the lowest-cost means of testing for tracking the COVID-19 outbreak in communities. This paper highlights the dynamics of the virus’s infection, persistence, and occurrence in wastewater treatment plants. Our aim is to develop and implement a mathematical model to infer the epidemic dynamics from the possible density of SARS-CoV-2 viral load in wastewater. We present a log-normal model and fractional order of susceptible-exposed-infected-recovery (SEIR) epidemic model for predicting the spread of the COVID-19 disease from the wastewater data. We study the dynamic properties of the fractional order SEIR model with respect to the fractional ordered values. The model is used to comprehend how the coronavirus spreads through wastewater treatment plants in Saudi Arabia. Our modeling approach can help with wastewater surveillance for early prediction and cost-effective monitoring of the epidemic outbreak in a situation of low testing capacity.

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“…The bilinear incidence rate βSI is considered a mass action incidence, and it is considered to be correct in the early stages of an outbreak of diseases or a huge number of the population. During the recent COVID-19 pandemic, this incidence rate was widely adopted [1]. However, this is insufficient for many epidemics.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bogdanov–Takens Bifurcation of Kermack–McKendrick Model with Nonlinear Contact Rates Caused by Multiple Exposures

Li,

2024

Symmetry

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In this paper, we consider the influence of a nonlinear contact rate caused by multiple contacts in classical SIR model. In this paper, we unversal unfolding a nilpotent cusp singularity in such systems through normal form theory, we reveal that the system undergoes a Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation with codimension 2. During the bifurcation process, numerous lower codimension bifurcations may emerge simultaneously, such as saddle-node and Hopf bifurcations with codimension 1. Finally, employing the Matcont and Phase Plane software, we construct bifurcation diagrams and topological phase portraits. Additionally, we emphasize the role of symmetry in our analysis. By considering the inherent symmetries in the system, we provide a more comprehensive understanding of the dynamical behavior. Our findings suggest that if this occurrence rate is applied to the SIR model, it would yield different dynamical phenomena compared to those obtained by reducing a 3-dimensional dynamical model to a planar system by neglecting the disease mortality rate, which results in a stable nilpotent cusp singularity with codimension 2. We found that in SIR models with the same occurrence rate, both stable and unstable Bogdanov-Takens bifurcations occur, meaning both stable and unstable limit cycles appear in this system.

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Modeling and Simulation: A Study on Predicting the Outbreak of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia

Cited by 7 publications

References 53 publications

Knowledge, Attitude, and Psychological Impacts of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia

Knowledge, Attitude, and Psychological Impacts of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia

Simulation of COVID-19 Epidemic from Potential Viral Loads in Saudi Arabian Wastewater Treatment Plants

Bogdanov–Takens Bifurcation of Kermack–McKendrick Model with Nonlinear Contact Rates Caused by Multiple Exposures

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