Modeling and simulation of industrial water demand of Beijing municipality in China

Abstract

Statistic and econometric regression models were established in this study to analyze and predict industrial water demand, water deficits, and their future uncertainty in Beijing-a Chinese city with a severe water stress problem. A forecasting model was selected based on a modeling evaluation by comparing predictions with observations. Four scenarios were designed to simulate and analyze the future uncertainty of industrial water demand and the water deficit of Beijing. The modeling results for industrial water demand suggested that Beijing industry would face a water deficit between 3.06 Â 10 8 m 3 in 2008 and 2.77 Â 10 8 m 3 in 2015, though its industrial water demand would decrease from 6.31 Â 10 8 m 3 to 4.84 Â 10 8 m 3 during this period of time. Results from simulated scenario illustrated that, due to the extreme water scarcity situation, industry in Beijing would still face a serious water deficit problem even with a very optimistic scenario for the future.

Short‐Term Forecasting Analysis for Municipal Water Demand

“…Labor market conditions may affect the consumption decisions of various types of water customers. The size of payrolls reflects prevailing economic conditions, which often affect the demand for water by firms (Wei et al 2010, Williams & Suh 1986). Business cycle fluctuations may also affect the intensity of water use by residential consumers (Bithas & Stoforos 2006).…”

“…Water demand forecasting is a tool that utilities use for a variety of purposes including capacity planning, budget year planning, and rate design. Forecasts also play a role in preparing for the possibility of water shortages (Wei et al 2010, Kenward & Howard 1999). In evaluating various alternative demand‐management policies, estimates of the water savings that are likely to accrue from specific initiatives may serve as useful decision‐making tools (Levin et al 2006, Froukh 2001).…”

The Characteristics and Dynamics of Cyanobacteria–Heterotrophic Bacteria Between Two Estuarine Reservoirs – Tropical Versus Sub-Tropical Regions

“…Water quality parameters including turbidity (NTU), chlorophyll-a, total phosphorous (TP) and total nitrogen (TN) were analyzed immediately according to water and wastewater monitoring analysis methods ( Wei, 2002 ), upon arrival at the labs in both China and Singapore. The concentrations of positive ions including Ca 2+ and Mg 2+ were detected using Inductively Coupled Plasma (ICP) spectroscopy.…”

Surface Water Quality Monitoring Site Optimization for Poyang Lake, the Largest Freshwater Lake in China

“…The three parameters were measured with the typical dichromate method, Nessler’s reagent colorimetry, and ammonium molybdate spectrophotometric method, respectively. The methods for water sample collection, storage and test were referred to the Water and Exhausted Water Monitoring Analysis Method (fourth edition), proposed by the China State Environmental Protection Administration in 2002 [ 10 ].…”