Modeling Behavior during a Pandemic: Using HIV as an Historical Analogy

Papageorge, Nicholas W.

doi:10.3386/w28898

Cited by 6 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 61 publications

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“…However, one of the shortcomings of these studies is that they often fail to consider that citizen behavior and disease spread may influence policy (Papageorge, 2021). In this article, that is the direction we take.…”

Section: Modeling the Causes And Effects Of Policy During The Covid‐1...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Should I stay or should I go? Embracing causal heterogeneity in the study of pandemic policy and citizen behavior

Barberia

Oliveira

Junqueira

et al. 2021

Social Science Quarterly

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Objective To test for multicausality between government policy, health outcomes, economic performance, and citizen behavior during the COVID‐19 global pandemic. Methods We perform Granger‐causality tests to explore the interrelationship between four endogenous variables, social distancing policy, home isolation, balance rate, and average weekly COVID‐19 deaths, in the 26 states of Brazil. As exogenous variables, we included a linear time trend and a dummy for the week in which the World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID‐19 a global pandemic. Results Our analysis of Granger causal ordering between the four variables demonstrates that there is significant heterogeneity across the Brazilian federation. These findings can be interpreted as underscoring that there is no common model applicable to all states, and that the dynamics are context‐dependent. Conclusion Our suggested approach allows researchers to account for the complex interrelationship between government policy, citizen behavior, the economy, and COVID‐related health outcomes.

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Section: Modeling the Causes And Effects Of Policy During The Covid‐1...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Should I stay or should I go? Embracing causal heterogeneity in the study of pandemic policy and citizen behavior

Barberia

Oliveira

Junqueira

et al. 2021

Social Science Quarterly

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Before the introduction of HAART in 1995, a HIV diagnosis was associated with a substantially shortened life expectancy, and many patients died shortly after being diagnosed. Without treatment, newly infected individuals faced a remaining life expectancy of just 11 years (Papageorge, 2021). Individuals diagnosed before and after 1995 thus di ered radically in their life expectancy, and the appearance of HAART has transformed HIV into a chronic illness that can be managed with medical treatment.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

When Death Was Postponed: The Effect of HIV Medication on Work, Savings and Marriage

et al. 2023

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“…(2021) discuss modeling considerations from epidemiology, while reviews in Brodeur et al. (2020) and Papageorge (Forthcoming) highlight economic perspectives to these questions.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling to inform economy‐wide pandemic policy: Bringing epidemiologists and economists together

et al. 2022

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Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, policymakers have been tasked with designing and implementing policies in the face of extraordinary uncertainty (Manski, 1999) and stark trade-offs between public health and other measures of human well-being. Policies designed to "flatten the curve" through social distancing often have negative economic consequences, such as unemployment, food insecurity, and business and school closures. The downstream consequences can also extend to outcomes more directly related to health, including intimate partner violence, addiction, depression, anxiety, suicide, and delays in medical treatments. Thus, efforts to mitigate the direct public health consequences of COVID-19 may not only have negative effects along other (e.g., economic) dimensions, but can have adverse indirect public health consequences as well. By the same token, however, choosing not to aggressively address the immediate public health crisis posed by COVID-19-a choice that has often been justified as a means of avoiding calamitous economic consequences-has driven repeated waves of exponential disease spread. These waves have not only driven morbidity and mortality; they also have had negative indirect effects on the economy, necessitating prolonged shutdowns and delaying resumption of economic activity. In summary, policies designed to promote public health or to preserve the economy can have the opposite effect on both dimensions. This paper represents a collaborative effort. All authors contributed equally and are thus listed in alphabetical order.

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Modeling Behavior during a Pandemic: Using HIV as an Historical Analogy

Cited by 6 publications

References 61 publications

Should I stay or should I go? Embracing causal heterogeneity in the study of pandemic policy and citizen behavior

Should I stay or should I go? Embracing causal heterogeneity in the study of pandemic policy and citizen behavior

When Death Was Postponed: The Effect of HIV Medication on Work, Savings and Marriage

Modeling to inform economy‐wide pandemic policy: Bringing epidemiologists and economists together

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