Modeling changes in land use patterns and ecosystem services to explore a potential solution for meeting the management needs of a heritage site at the landscape level

Wang, You; Ji, Zhirong; Wu, Liyun; Deng, Xipeng; Huang, Dehua; Chen, Bingrong; Jianan, Yu

doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2016.09.027

Cited by 29 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…Cropland is mostly distributed in the surroundings of nearby settlements and water sources to facilitate farming [15]. Most of the cultivated fields were expanding around the existed cropland and or around the settlements, and the increased cropland was mainly transformed from barren land and grassland.…”

Section: Characteristics Of Each Scenario Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The application of the CLUE-S model could lead to a better understanding of land use changes, patterns and the underlying driving variables [15]. Thus, comprehensive land use strategies could be made based on the characteristics of the scenario simulations.…”

Section: Characteristics Of Each Scenario Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Scenarios and their specific applications should be considered in demand calculations, and the requirement of the land use types should be specified yearly, which is a direct input into the allocation module [60]. The land use requirements are allocated to individual grid cells in the spatial allocation module until the requirements have been satisfied with the rules based on a comprehensive and empirical analyses of the patterns of the current land use types [15,43].…”

Section: Clue-s Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Simulating and modelling dynamic processes are important in the correlative fields, such as farmland abandonment [13], urban expansion [14] and land-use management [15]. Predicting land use changes can assist in determining the extent of degradation and enabling the managers to control changes in the proper directions [16][17][18].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Scenarios are widely applied in understanding land system change [45][46][47], exploring potential solutions for land use management [15], ecosystem services evaluation [47] and soil organic carbon analysis [48]. A stakeholder that makes qualitative storylines of the change direction is often involved in the process of scenario-building [49].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Scenarios Simulation of Spatio-Temporal Land Use Changes for Exploring Sustainable Management Strategies

Wang

Cai

et al. 2018

Sustainability

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Land use and land cover change have received considerable attention from global researchers in recent decades. The conflicts between different development strategies for land uses have become a problem that urgently needs to be solved, especially in those regions with a fragile ecological environment. The development of scenario simulations is essential in order to highlight possible alternative pathways for the future under the backgrounds of urbanization, economic growth and ecological protection. This study simulated land use changes for Tekes in 2020 with the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-S) model under a 'business as usual' scenario, cropland protection scenario, ecological security scenario, and artificial modification scenario. The results indicated that the spatial patterns of the land use types were explained well by the environment variables, and the selected models had a satisfactory accuracy in this study. The requirements and the patterns were quite different owing to the variation of the major objectives of the four scenarios. In addition to the constraint rules of the land use transformation, the hot point for land use change was its spatial coherency. Areas near to an existing land use type were more likely to transform to that type than those farther away. The increased cropland and urban land were mainly located around the current cropland and urban land while forests and grassland were more likely to occur in places with flat terrain and good hydrological conditions. The results could contribute to better insight into the relationships between land use changes and their driving factors and provide a scientific basis for regional management strategies and sustainable land use development.

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Section: Characteristics Of Each Scenario Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Characteristics Of Each Scenario Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Clue-s Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Scenarios Simulation of Spatio-Temporal Land Use Changes for Exploring Sustainable Management Strategies

Wang

Cai

et al. 2018

Sustainability

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Landscape-level spatiotemporal patterns of Dendrolimus punctatus Walker and its driving forces: evidence from a Pinus massoniana forest

Wang

Huiming

et al. 2019

Trees

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Scenario modeling for spatial-temporal change detection of carbon storage and sequestration in a forested landscape in Northern Iran

Zarandian¹,

Badamfirouz²,

Musazadeh³

et al. 2018

Environ Monit Assess

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The present study was conducted, based on scenario modeling approach, in the Do-hezar and Se-hezar forested landscape in the Mazandaran Province in Northern Iran in order to detect spatial-temporal changes of carbon storage and sequestration in four different carbon pools, i.e., aboveground and belowground biomasses, dead organic matter, and organic soils. For this purpose, firstly, the changing trend of land use/land cover (LULC) was detected by analyzing and comparing remotely sensed data of the landscape during the period of 1984-2016. Then, the impacts of future LULC changes on carbon storage and sequestration were predicted and valued using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model under two future plausible scenarios of business as usual (BAU) and balanced development (BD). According to the results of BAU scenario, continuation of the current trend will lead to a significant reduction in the carbon sequestration and a huge amount of social cost due to the loss of carbon stored in the landscape and its release to the atmosphere. The BD scenario which refers to the principled and under control development of human settlements simultaneously with forest conservational and restoration activities, could potentially reverse the downtrend of carbon sequestration service and avoid future socioeconomic costs, hence add to the economic value of the forest landscape in terms of providing a better sink for carbon storage. The results of this research can facilitate the quantitative and accurate assessment of carbon storage and sequestration relying on more precise biophysical and economic data as well as provide insight for effective land-use planning.

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Modeling changes in land use patterns and ecosystem services to explore a potential solution for meeting the management needs of a heritage site at the landscape level

Cited by 29 publications

References 20 publications

Scenarios Simulation of Spatio-Temporal Land Use Changes for Exploring Sustainable Management Strategies

Scenarios Simulation of Spatio-Temporal Land Use Changes for Exploring Sustainable Management Strategies

Landscape-level spatiotemporal patterns of Dendrolimus punctatus Walker and its driving forces: evidence from a Pinus massoniana forest

Scenario modeling for spatial-temporal change detection of carbon storage and sequestration in a forested landscape in Northern Iran

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