Modeling climate-dependent population dynamics of mosquitoes to guide public health policies

Vaidya, Aditya S.; Bravo-Salgado, Angel; Mikler, Armin R.

doi:10.1145/2649387.2649415

Cited by 7 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…This result is important with respect to Zika because of the low ranging basic reproduction number for Zika, which highlights the importance of international travelers in Zika outbreaks. The effect of climate on the mosquito breeding cycle is discussed in [17,18]. They present mathematical and compartmental models to include seasonal variations in predicting the population dynamics of mosquitoes.…”

Section: Related Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The mosquito life cycle can be modeled using differential equations that define the rates of change in each stage with respect to time. This continuous system governs the transition from eggs to larvae, larvae to pupae, and pupae to adults and their respective mortality rates [18,20,21]. In this study, the differential equations are discretized and the number of mosquitoes in each compartment, Eggs (E)), Larvae (L), Pupae (P) and Adults (A) are computed on a daily basis.…”

Section: Mosquito Ecologymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The dependence of the population dynamics of Aedes Agypti mosquitoes on temperature is taken into account by varying the maturation and mortality rates with temperature [18]. The rates are computed by regressing values of rates at different temperatures, available in [23][24][25].…”

Section: Variation With Temperaturementioning

confidence: 99%

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Modeling the 2013 Zika Outbreak in French Polynesia: Intervention Strategies

Gwalani

Hawamdeh

Mikler

et al. 2018

ASI

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The ongoing Zika virus (ZIKV) in the Americas has been a serious public health emergency since 2015. Since Zika is a vector-borne disease, the size of the vector population in the affected area plays a key role in controlling the scale of the outbreak. The primary vectors for Zika, the Aedes Agypti and Aedes Albopictus species of mosquitoes, are highly sensitive to climatic conditions for survival and reproduction. Additionally, increased international travel over the years has caused the disease outbreak to turn into a pandemic affecting five continents. The mosquito population and the human travel patterns are the two main driving forces affecting the persistence and resurgence of Zika and other vector-borne diseases. This paper presents an enhanced dynamic model that simulates the 2013–2014 French Polynesia Zika outbreak incorporating the temperature dependent mosquito ecology and the local transit network (flights and ferries). The study highlights the importance of human travel patterns and mosquito population dynamics in a disease outbreak. The results predict that more than 85% of the population was infected by the end of the outbreak and it lasted for more than five months across the islands. The basic reproduction number ( R 0 ) for the outbreak is also calculated using the next-generation-matrix for validation purposes. Additionally, this study is focused on measuring the impact of intervention strategies like reducing the mosquito population, preventing mosquito bites and imposing travel bans. French Polynesia was chosen as the region of interest for the study because of available demographic, climate and transit data. Additionally, results from similar studies for the region are available for validation and comparison. However, the proposed system can be used to study the transmission dynamics of any vector-borne disease in any geographic region by altering the climatic and demographic data, and the transit network.

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Section: Related Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Mosquito Ecologymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modeling the 2013 Zika Outbreak in French Polynesia: Intervention Strategies

Gwalani

Hawamdeh

Mikler

et al. 2018

ASI

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“…In[63], a mathematical model using differential equations was developed to take into account daily rainfall and temperature data on the breeding cycle of the Aedes aegypti mosquito. Once constructed and tuned, real data can be processed by the model to simulate how the populations will change per day over potentially many months.2.6.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Validation and Evaluation of Emergency Response Plans through Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation

Heising

Gwalani

Mikler

et al. 2019

2019 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)

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Helsing, Joseph Edward. Validation and Evaluation of Emergency Response Plans through Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation. Doctor of Philosophy (Computer Science and Engineering), May 2018, 103 pp., 12 tables, 54 figures, 66 numbered references. Biological emergency response planning plays a critical role in protecting the public from possible devastating results of sudden disease outbreaks. These plans describe the distribution of medical countermeasures across a region using limited resources within a restricted time window. Thus, the ability to determine that such a plan will be feasible, i.e. successfully provide service to affected populations within the time limit, is crucial. Many of the current efforts to validate plans are in the form of live drills and training, but those may not test plan activation at the appropriate scale or with sufficient numbers of participants. Thus, this necessitates the use of computational resources to aid emergency managers and planners in developing and evaluating plans before they must be used. Current emergency response plan generation software packages such as RE-PLAN or RealOpt, provide rate-based validation analyses. However, these types of analysis may neglect details of real-world traffic dynamics. Therefore, this dissertation presents Validating Emergency Response Plan Execution Through Simulation (VERPETS), a novel, computational system for the agent-based simulation of biological emergency response plan activation. This system converts raw road network, population distribution, and emergency response plan data into a format suitable for simulation, and then performs these simulations using SUMO, or Simulations of Urban Mobility, to simulate realistic traffic dynamics. Additionally, high performance computing methodologies were utilized to decrease agent load on simulations and improve performance. Further strategies, such as use of agent scaling and a time limit on simulation execution, were also examined. Experimental results indicate that the time to plan completion, i.e. the time when all individuals of the population have received medication, determined by VERPETS aligned well with current alternate methodologies. It was determined that the dynamic of traffic congestion at the POD itself was one of the major factors affecting the completion time of the plan, and thus allowed for more rapid calculations of plan completion time. Thus, this system provides not only a novel methodology to validate emergency response plans, but also a validation of other current strategies of emergency response plan validation.

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“…Process based modelling is resourceful in combining the vector and host dynamic along with the response to the meteorological factors for dengue transmission (Vezzani, et al, 2004). This dynamic modelling process can incorporate the biophysical relationship between different entomological and environmental factors (Vaidya, et al, 2014). In previous studies, process based models have not dealt with the integrated impact of vector-host dynamic and dengue transmission epidemiology by incorporating weather dependent total transmission mechanism (Morin, et al, 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A System Dynamic Transmission Model (SYStrans) to Simulate Epidemic Dengue Environment

Anwar¹

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I would like to convey my deepest gratitude to my thesis supervisor, Dr. Antar Jutla. I am grateful to him for inspiring me through the path of my journey in acquiring knowledge and supporting me to develop the thirst for research. I thank him for his immense guidance and support. I am thankful to my committee members, Dr. Radhey S. Sharma and Dr. Lian-Shin Lin for their encouragement and knowledge that has guided me in improving my research. Their course works helped me incalculably during my research period. My deepest gratitude to my father, Nurul Anwar and my mother, Parveen Fatema, for whom I have achieved every success in my life. Their unconditional love and support has been by biggest strength. I would like to thank my beloved husband, Musfique Ahmed, for his unconditional support and love and for always being by my side. I would like to express my gratitude to him, for without his support I would not be able to achieve any success. I would like to thank my father in law, Md Jasim Uddin Ahmed and mother in law, Maksuda Begum, for their immense love and support. I would like to express my gratitude to my sisters and sister in law, for always being there for me. I express my greatest gratitude to my creator, Allah, for giving me the strength and being the best planner of my life.

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Modeling climate-dependent population dynamics of mosquitoes to guide public health policies

Cited by 7 publications

References 15 publications

Modeling the 2013 Zika Outbreak in French Polynesia: Intervention Strategies

Modeling the 2013 Zika Outbreak in French Polynesia: Intervention Strategies

Validation and Evaluation of Emergency Response Plans through Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation

A System Dynamic Transmission Model (SYStrans) to Simulate Epidemic Dengue Environment

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