Modeling climate-smart forest management and wood use for climate mitigation potential in Maryland and Pennsylvania

Abstract

State and local governments are increasingly interested in understanding the role forests and harvested wood products play in regional carbon sinks and storage, their potential contributions to state-level greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions, and the interactions between GHG reduction goals and potential economic opportunities. We used empirically driven process-based forest carbon dynamics and harvested wood product models in a systems-based approach to project the carbon impacts of various forest management and wood utilization activities in Maryland and Pennsylvania from 2007 to 2100. To quantify state-wide forest carbon dynamics, we integrated forest inventory data, harvest and management activity data, and remotely-sensed metrics of land-use change and natural forest disturbances within a participatory modeling approach. We accounted for net GHG emissions across (1) forest ecosystems (2) harvested wood products, (3) substitution benefits from wood product utilization, and (4) leakage associated with reduced in-state harvesting activities. Based on state agency partner input, a total of 15 management scenarios were modeled for Maryland and 13 for Pennsylvania, along with two climate change impact scenarios and two bioenergy scenarios for each state. Our findings show that both strategic forest management and wood utilization can provide substantial climate change mitigation potential relative to business-as-usual practices, increasing the forest C sink by 29% in Maryland and 38% in Pennsylvania by 2030 without disrupting timber supplies. Key climate-smart forest management activities include maintaining and increasing forest extent, fostering forest resiliency and natural regeneration, encouraging sustainable harvest practices, balancing timber supply and wood utilization with tree growth, and preparing for future climate impacts. This study adds to a growing body of work that quantifies the relationships between forest growth, forest disturbance, and harvested wood product utilization, along with their collective influence on carbon stocks and fluxes, to identify pathways to enhance forest carbon sinks in support of state-level net-zero emission targets.

Forest carbon stock development following extreme drought-induced dieback of coniferous stands in Central Europe: a CBM-CFS3 model application

“…Evidently, set-aside areas balance climate and biodiversity considerations, which should be weighed up [ 44 ]. Note also that a complete evaluation should include substitution benefits from HWP utilization and substitution function of forestry [ 44 , 45 ], which was not considered here.…”

Generic Carbon Budget Model for Assessing National Carbon Dynamics toward Carbon Neutrality: A Case Study of Republic of Korea

“…In none of these analyses have we included carbon stored in harvested wood products derived from timber harvesting or the climate mitigation benefits of the use of such wood for products or energy. In the context of land-based climate mitigation strategies, sustainable forest management plays an important role by continuously removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, storing some of it in forest ecosystems, and some in harvested wood products, with other biomass carbon contributing to the reduction in emissions associated with the substitution of emission-intensive materials (e.g., steel and concrete) and fossil fuels [30,49,50]. Through the large-scale afforestation efforts of South Korea over the past decades, the forest area has been greatly increased putting into place sustainably managed forests that over the period 2010 to 2050 contributed to the forest products' sector 204.9 Mt C of which 141.0 Mt were obtained through clear-cut harvest and 63.9 Mt C were obtained through thinning.…”