Modeling COVID-19 and Its Impacts on U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) Detention Facilities, 2020

Abstract

U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) facilities house thousands of undocumented immigrants in environments discordant with the public health recommendations to reduce the transmission of 2019 novel coronavirus . Using ICE detainee population data obtained from the ICE Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) website as of March 2, 2020, we implemented a simple stochastic susceptibleexposed-infected-recovered model to estimate the rate of COVID-19 transmission within 111 ICE detention facilities and then examined impacts on regional hospital intensive care unit (ICU) capacity. Models considered three scenarios of transmission (optimistic, moderate, pessimistic) over 30-, 60-, and 90-day time horizons across a range of facility sizes. We found that 72% of individuals are expected to be infected by day 90 under the optimistic scenario (R0 = 2.5), while nearly 100% of individuals are expected to be infected by day 90 under a more pessimistic (R0 = 7) scenario. Although asynchronous outbreaks are more likely, day 90 estimates provide an approximation of total positive cases after all ICE facility outbreaks. We determined that, in the most optimistic scenario, coronavirus outbreaks among a minimum of 65 ICE facilities (59%) would overwhelm ICU J Urban Health

An Innovative Non-Pharmaceutical Intervention to Mitigate SARS-CoV02 Spread: Probability Sampling to Identify and Isolate Asymptomatic Cases

“…The probability that an interaction with an infected agent results in transmission of the infection is governed by β, which is 0.168206 for models with R0=2.6, 0.127852 for models with R0=2.0, and 0.22201 for models with R0=3.4. Results in this paper reflect R0=2.6, a commonly used value at this time, and results for a broader range of possible values, R0=2.0 and 3.4 (2,(24)(25)(26)(27), are presented in the Supplementary Materials.…”

The Global Impact of the Pandemic on Institutional and Community Corrections: Assessing Short-Term Crisis Management and Long-Term Change Strategies

“…Preliminary analysis from Cook County Jail, IL shows that jail cycling was associated with 15.7% of documented cases in IL, exceeding other known predictors (e.g., population density and public transit utilization) (Reinhart & Chen, 2020). A simple stochastic susceptible exposedinfected-recovered model of COVID-19 disease spread in Immigration and Customs Enforcement detention centers shows that under optimistic conditions outbreaks among a minimum of 65 ICE facilities would overwhelm ICU beds within a 10-mile radius (Irvine et al, 2020). Additional epidemiologic modeling of ICE facilities indicates potential underreporting of cases (Siulc, 2020).…”

Applications of GIS and geospatial analyses in COVID-19 research: A systematic review

“…A substantial number of studies were found to apply computeraided spatial and statistical analysis and modeling techniques in analyzing distinct aspects of COVID-19. A total of 16 articles were identified that emphasized on computer-aided spatial and statistical analysis and modeling in COVID-19 [69][70][71][72][73][74][75][76][77][78][79][80][81][82][83][84] . Most of these works were focused on analyzing the spatial distribution pattern of COVID-19 cases using the confirmed cases data [72][73][74][75][76][77][78] , or news reports of COVID-19 cases as proxy data 79 .…”