Modeling COVID-19 Pandemic using Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) Model for Karachi City

Abstract

Numerical models can help identify the peak infection time of an epidemic. In Karachi, since the detection of patient zero on 26th February the infection has spread at an exponential rate. The epidemic may reach a point when rigorous measures should be implemented. In this study Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model is applied to predict the peak infection of COVID-19 in the population of Karachi City and compared with the number of reported cases by Sindh Population and Welfare Department’s database. The model was validated with the Lahore coronavirus cases correlation coefficient of modeled and observed data for Lahore City was observed to be 0.9736. According to the model prediction, Karachi would experience peak infection on 150th day that would be 25th July 2020 since the first case was reported on 26th February 2020. The correlation coefficient of modeled and observed data for historic period of 62 days is 0.9816. Measures like social distancing and strict operating procedure for essential community services should be adopted to control this spread otherwise the number of infected may result in collapse of the medical system.