Modeling COVID-19 Transmission in Africa: Country-wise Projections of Total and Severe Infections Under Different Lockdown Scenarios

Abstract

Objectives As of August 24th 2020, there have been 1,084,904 confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 and 24,683 deaths across the African continent. Despite relatively lower numbers of cases initially, many African countries are now experiencing an exponential increase in case numbers. Estimates of the progression of disease and potential impact of different interventions are needed to inform policy making decisions. Herein, we model the possible trajectory of SARS-CoV-2 in 52 African countries under different intervention scenarios. Design We developed a compartmental model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to estimate the COVID-19 case burden for all African countries while considering four scenarios: no intervention, moderate lockdown, hard lockdown, and hard lockdown with continued restrictions once lockdown is lifted. We further analyzed the potential impact of COVID-19 on vulnerable populations affected by HIV/AIDS and TB. Results In the absence of an intervention, the most populous countries had the highest peaks in active projected number of infections with Nigeria having an estimated 645,081 severe infections. The scenario with a hard lockdown and continued post-lockdown interventions to reduce transmission was the most efficacious strategy for delaying the time to the peak and reducing the number of cases. In South Africa projected peak severe infections increase from 162,977 to 203,261, when vulnerable populations with HIV/AIDS and TB are included in the analysis. Conclusion The COVID-19 pandemic is rapidly spreading across the African continent. Estimates of the potential impact of interventions and burden of disease are essential for policy makers to make evidence-based decisions on the distribution of limited resources and to balance the economic costs of interventions with the potential for saving lives.

The Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on the First COVID-19 Epidemic Wave in South Africa

“…COVID-19 has been widely modelled with variations of the SEIR model [26][27][28][29][30][31][32]. One of the earliest Global COVID-19 transmission models to be published was the Imperial College London COVID-19 Model [28,33].…”

“…The Imperial College London COVID-19 Model had a great influence in the early policy response to COVID-19 in the United Kingdom and many other countries including Africa [28]. Another COVID-19 Model of note was the model produced by the Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policy (CDDEP) [27,29]. The CDDEP COVID-19 Models tried to understand the impact of Country-Wise Lockdowns and Health Care system preparedness in African countries [27].…”

How prepared is Mozambique to treat COVID-19 patients? A new approach for estimating oxygen service availability, oxygen treatment capacity, and population access to oxygen-ready treatment facilities

“…In March 2020, the Imperial College of London predicted that the peak hospital demand would reach 19,000 patients even if severe lockdown measures were imposed and enforced [ 2 ]. A more recent simulation by the Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics, & Policy predicted that there would be over 30,000 active severe infections on September 1, 2020 assuming lockdown measures and social distancing [ 22 ]. Assuming all infected patients had equal access to oxygen-ready facilities, our analysis found Mozambique would be able to provide a continuous oxygen flow to, at most, 2.1% of these patients.…”

Study of SEIRD Adaptive-Compartmental Model of COVID-19 Epidemic Spread in Russian Federation Using Optimization Methods

“…Представлена гибридная адаптивно-компартментная модель распространения короновирусной эпидемии и показана возможность ее оптимизации за счет точной настройки параметров модели из данных по эпидемии. Принятие реальных решений на предотвращение/смягчение угроз требует, чтобы проигрывалось множество возможных вариантов [38,39] с относительно несложным аппаратом интерпретации, за небольшой отрезок времени. Поэтому мы используем сочетание современных технологий интеллектуальной оптимизации и методов системной динамики.…”