Modeling demand/supply of water resources in the arid region of northwestern China during the late 1980s to 2010

Abstract

Water demand increases continuously with an increasing population and economic development. As a result, the difference between water supply and demand becomes a significant issue, especially in arid regions. To figure out the utilization of water resources in the arid region of northwestern China (ARNWC), and also to provide methodologies to predict the water use in future, three models were established in this study to calculate agricultural irrigation, industrial and domestic water use in the ARNWC from the late 1980s to 2010. Based on river discharges in the region, the supply and demand of water resources at the river basin level were analyzed. The results indicated that agricultural irrigation demand occupies more than 90% of the total water use in the ARNWC. Total water demand increased from 31.97 km 3 in the late 1980s to 48.19 km 3 in 2010. Most river basins in this arid region were under medium and high water stress. Severe-risk river basins, such as the Shiyang river basin and the eastern part of the northern piedmont of the Tianshan Mountains, were found in this region. It was revealed that the water supply became critical from April to May, which was the season of the lowest water supply as determined by comparing monthly water consumption.Keywords: agricultural irrigation water demand; industrial water demand; domestic water demand; total water demand; supply and demand of water resources; arid region of northwestern China

Are the drylands in northern China sustainable? A perspective from ecological footprint dynamics from 1990 to 2010

“…The mean annual precipitation in the DNC decreases from east to west from more than 400 mm to b10 mm (Yang et al, 2008). The mean annual potential evapotranspiration is generally around 8-10 times the mean annual precipitation Liu et al, 2015b), with a peak value as high as 3000 mm. In 2010, the population of the area was 0.36 billion people, or 26.7% of China's population, and the gross domestic product (GDP) at the same time was 12.5 trillion yuan, 31.1% of the national GDP (National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2011b; National Population Census Office of China and National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2012).…”

“…As a result of population growth, economic development, and rapid urbanization, water scarcity has become more of a limiting factor to sustainable development in the DNC (Liu et al, 2015b). More specifically, population growth has increased the total demand of water consumption, and improving standard of living and lifestyle changes have further driven the demand of residential water consumption (Hubacek et al, 2009;Wu, 2010;Hoekstra and Wiedmann, 2014;McDonald et al, 2011McDonald et al, , 2014.…”

“…In the context of rapid urbanization, the DNC are facing the challenge of sustainable development due to their ecological and environmental problems. For example, water demand in the DNC increased from 31.97 km 3 in the late 1980s to 48.19 km 3 in 2010, an accelerating growth of 16.22 km 3 or 50.75% (Liu et al, 2015b), whereas per capita water resources are rather limited, being only 68% of the national average . Land experiencing desertification in the DNC expanded from 2622 thousand km 2 in 1994 to 2636 thousand km 2 in 2004 (Zhu, 2006;Yang et al, 2008;Xu et al, 2014).…”

“…For example, Liu et al (2015b) performed a sustainability assessment for water resources in the dryland of northwestern China from the late 1980s to 2010. Xu and Zhang (2012) assessed the sustainability of land utilization in the agro-pastoral transition zone in northern China from 1990to 2005, and Fang and Xie (2010 conducted a sustainability assessment for the water-constrained urban development in the He-Xi corridor in the DNC from 1985 to 2030 on the basis of socioeconomic indicators.…”

Risk Assessment of Regional Irrigation Water Demand and Supply in an Arid Inland River Basin of Northwestern China

“…Currently, there are several methods to calculate crop irrigation water requirement, including mathematical model simulation based on ground observation [4,5] and the method by calculating crop water requirement in combination with crop area to determine the regional irrigation water demand [6,7]. Although the former can obtain accurate agricultural water consumption estimation at the farmland scale, it is not suitable for the study of irrigation water demand in a region.…”