Modeling direct air carbon capture and storage in a 1.5 °C climate future using historical analogs

Abstract

Limiting the rise in global temperature to 1.5 °C will rely, in part, on technologies to remove CO 2 from the atmosphere. However, many carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies are in the early stages of development, and there is limited data to inform predictions of their future adoption. Here, we present an approach to model adoption of early-stage technologies such as CDR and apply it to direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS). Our approach combines empirical data on historical technology analogs and early adoption indicators to model a range of feasible growth pathways. We use these pathways as inputs to an integrated assessment model (the Global Change Analysis Model, GCAM) and evaluate their effects under an emissions policy to limit end-of-century temperature change to 1.5 °C. Adoption varies widely across analogs, which share different strategic similarities with DACCS. If DACCS growth mirrors high-growth analogs (e.g., solar photovoltaics), it can reach up to 4.9 GtCO 2 removal by midcentury, compared to as low as 0.2 GtCO 2 for low-growth analogs (e.g., natural gas pipelines). For these slower growing analogs, unabated fossil fuel generation in 2050 is reduced by 44% compared to high-growth analogs, with implications for energy investments and stranded assets. Residual emissions at the end of the century are also substantially lower (by up to 43% and 34% in transportation and industry) under lower DACCS scenarios. The large variation in growth rates observed for different analogs can also point to policy takeaways for enabling DACCS.

Showcasing advances and building community in modeling for sustainability

“…They find that the effect of including societal response is not only substantial but also shapes the ways in which the burdens of responding to pollution are distributed, including both the costs of adaptation and the remaining impacts of those who are unable to adapt (such as outdoor workers). The paper by Edwards et al ( 62 ) addresses a type of dynamic that has historically proved difficult to predict—the generation of novelty, through innovation. Historically, integrated assessment models that have been used to evaluate climate change policy have been critiqued for their insufficient representation of the potential for future technologies to emerge.…”

Dual Promotional Effect of l-Tryptophan and 1,3-Dioxane on CO2 Hydrate Kinetics in Seawater under Static/Unstatic Conditions for Carbon Capture and Storage Application

“…Global warming has been exacerbated as a result of increased industry CO 2 emissions, 1 and to limit global warming to 1−1.5 °C by 2050, 2 an estimated 764 gigatonnes of CO 2 needs to be removed from the atmosphere. 3−5 This target can potentially be achieved using carbon capture and storage (CCS) techniques.…”

“…Global warming has been exacerbated as a result of increased industry CO 2 emissions, and to limit global warming to 1–1.5 °C by 2050, an estimated 764 gigatonnes of CO 2 needs to be removed from the atmosphere. − This target can potentially be achieved using carbon capture and storage (CCS) techniques. − One of the potential CCS techniques is capturing CO 2 emissions from the industry (pre-combustion and post-combustion) and injecting them into the oceanic sediments, where in the presence of water and favorable thermodynamic conditions, it can be stored as gas hydrates. − Gas hydrates are crystalline compounds that are formed when small gas molecules, like CO 2 , become trapped within water molecules at high-pressure and low-temperature conditions, forming stable lattices. − In the permafrost regions, large reserves of methane gas hydrates have naturally existed for centuries with trace amounts of other gases, like CO 2 , providing strong evidence of the high stability levels of CO 2 hydrates. , However, the major challenges in implementation of this technology are the slow CO 2 hydrate kinetics in seawater and lack of suitable low-dosage hydrate promoters to accelerate hydrate kinetics. − The slow CO 2 hydrate kinetics is not suitable for large-scale CCS operations. , Therefore, more experimental work is required to identify suitable CO 2 gas hydrate promoters to enhance the kinetics in saline systems and make the process more efficient. − …”