The correlation coefficient squared, $r^2$, is often used to validate quantitative models on neural data. Yet it is biased by trial-to-trial variability: as trial-to-trial variability increases, measured correlation to a model's predictions decreases; therefore, models that perfectly explain neural tuning can appear to perform poorly. Many solutions to this problem have been proposed, but some prior methods overestimate model fit, the utility of even the best performing methods is limited by the lack of confidence intervals and asymptotic analysis, and no consensus has been reached on which is the least biased estimator. We provide a new estimator, $\hat{r}^2_{\text{ER}}$, that outperforms all prior estimators in our testing, and we provide confidence intervals and asymptotic guarantees. We apply our estimator to a variety of neural data to validate its utility. We find that neural noise is often so great that confidence intervals of the estimator cover the entire possible range of values ([0,1]), preventing meaningful evaluation of the quality of a model's predictions. We demonstrate the use of the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) as a quality metric for making quantitative comparisons across neural recordings. Analyzing a variety of neural data sets, we find $\sim 40 \%$ or less of some neural recordings do not pass even a liberal SNR criterion.