Modeling ecohydrological dynamics of smallholder strategies for food production in dryland agricultural systems

Abstract

In dryland environments, characterized by low and frequently variable rainfall, smallholder farmers must take crop water sensitivity into account along with other characteristics like seed availability and market price when deciding what to plant. In this paper we use the results of surveys conducted among smallholders located near Mount Kenya to identify clusters of farmers devoting different fractions of their land to subsistence and market crops. Additionally, we explore the tradeoffs between waterinsensitive but low-value subsistence crops and a water-sensitive but high-value market crop using a numerical model that simulates soil moisture dynamics and crop production over multiple growing seasons. The cluster analysis shows that most farmers prefer to plant either only subsistence crops or only market crops, with a minority choosing to plant substantial fractions of both. The model output suggests that the value a farmer places on a successful growing season, a measure of risk aversion, plays a large role in whether the farmer chooses a subsistence or market crop strategy. Furthermore, access to irrigation, makes market crops more appealing, even to very risk-averse farmers. We then conclude that the observed clustering may result from different levels of risk aversion and access to irrigation.

Consequences of Dryland Maize Planting Decisions Under Increased Seasonal Rainfall Variability

“…Access to irrigation and water harvesting more generally will be an important way for farmers to buffer negative climate impacts. In this region in central Kenya, access to irrigation resources is not ubiquitous and even those farmers with access to irrigation experience high spatial and temporal variability in its availability (Gower et al., 2016). McCord et al.…”

The Impact of Commercial Horticulture on River Water Resources in the Upper Ewaso Ng'iro River Basin, Kenya

“…We argue that commercial horticulture farms in this area are important and powerful actors with vested interests in negotiations over use of river water. Their role in Kenya's water governance regime has been under-researched, with most work focusing on either small-scale farmers or households (see, for example, Dell'Angelo et al 2016; Gower et al 2016;McCord, Dell'Angelo, Gower, et al 2017). The Upper Ewaso Ng'iro River Basin is a fruitful area for study because it exemplifies the types of socioenvironmental competition and conflict that may arise between small-and large-scale rural systems when resources, such as water, become scarce.…”

Food, trade, and the environment

“…Global hydrological model analyses by Jägermeyr et al (2016) show that global application of four different integrated crop water management interventions could theoretically increase food production on current agricultural lands by 18%-60%. However, more focused model analyses and surveys of smallholder farmers in the Mount Kenya region of Kenya revealed that levels of risk aversion for individual farmers are an important determining factor for whether or not these interventions are adopted (Gower et al 2016). Smallholder farms make up the majority of the agricultural land area in countries where integrated crop water stands to make the biggest production gains; so reconciling the biophysical potential of specific interventions with the cultural and economic diversity of smallholder farmers is a key research priority (MacDonald et al 2016).…”