Modeling for Transition Management

Abstract

A framework for the modeling and simulation of transitions is presented. A transition, "substantial change in the state of a socio-technical system", typically unfolds over a long timespan. We therefore suggest to use simulation to inform transition managers on the effect of their decisions. Transition models preferably meet five functional requirements: to allow for the representation of physical and social components, for material and immaterial interactions, to allow the system structure to change, to compute transition indicators and to capture the effect of interventions. Modeling the decarbonization of the power sector illustrates that an agent-based model allows us to let both the content and the structure of a system to emerge in a simulation.

Simulating climate and energy policy with agent-based modelling: The Energy Modelling Laboratory (EMLab)

“…Over the course of decades, unwanted side effects may emerge out of the decisions made over time. In the long run, path dependency creates lockin effects [2], which, in turn, could make the energy transition costly and slow.…”

“…Agent-based models (ABMs) are a promising approach for policy support [15] that can take up the challenges without relying on perfect predictions [14]. In contrast to more traditional approaches ABM captures the emergence of system level behaviour out of the individual behaviour of its actors [2], which complements all existing approaches in section 2.3. As [8] justifies, ABM can be used because of "(i) the unsuitability of competing modelling formalisms to address the problems of social science, (ii) agents as a natural ontology for many social problems, and (iii) emergence" [8].…”

“…We cannot just rely on targets and we cannot expect the market to act by itself [1]. The question is how to intervene in the complex dynamics of our energy infrastructures [2].…”