Modeling future wildlife habitat suitability: serious climate change impacts on the potential distribution of the Rock Ptarmigan Lagopus muta japonica in Japan’s northern Alps

Abstract

Background The Rock Ptarmigan Lagopus muta japonica lives in the alpine zones of central Japan, which is the southern limit of the global distribution for this species. This species is highly dependent on alpine habitats, which are considered vulnerable to rapid climate change. This study aimed to assess the impact of climate change on potential L. muta japonica habitat based on predicted changes to alpine vegetation, to identify population vulnerability under future climatic conditions for conservation planning. We developed species distribution models, which considered the structure of the alpine ecosystem by incorporating spatial hierarchy on specific environmental factors to assess the potential habitats for L. muta japonica under current and future climates. We used 24 general circulation models (GCMs) for 2081–2100 as future climate conditions. Results The predicted potential habitat for L. muta japonica was similar to the actual distribution of the territories in the study area of Japan’s northern Alps (36.25–36.5°N, 137.5–137.7°E). Future potential habitat for L. muta japonica was projected to decrease to 0.4% of the current potential habitat in the median of occurrence probabilities under 24 GCMs, due to a decrease in alpine vegetation communities. Some potential habitats in the central and northwestern part of the study area were predicted to be sustained in the future, depending on the GCMs. Conclusions Our model results predicted that the potential habitats for L. muta japonica in Japan’s northern Alps, which provides core habitat for this subspecies, would be vulnerable by 2081–2100. Small sustainable habitats may serve as refugia, facilitating the survival of L. muta japonica populations under future climatic conditions. Impact assessment studies of the effect of climate change on L. muta japonica habitats at a nationwide scale are urgently required to establish effective conservation planning for this species, which includes identifying candidate areas for assisted migration as an adaptive strategy. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12898-019-0238-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

A genus at risk: Predicted current and future distribution of all three Lagopus species reveal sensitivity to climate change and efficacy of protected areas

“…Our estimates of range losses in B.C. align with predicted climate sensitivity of ptarmigan across the globe: rock and/or willow ptarmigan in the European Alps (Brambilla et al., 2017; Revermann et al., 2012), in Fennoscandia and Russia (Virkkala et al., 2008), and Japan (Hotta et al., 2019), as well as global distributions (La Sorte & Jetz, 2010; Lagerholm et al., 2017; Table ). While future projections for white‐tailed ptarmigan are limited (Table ), our results match those of Jackson et al.…”

“…White‐tailed ptarmigan are alpine specialists, restricted to western North America and inhabiting the highest elevations of the three species, preferring greater rock cover and low‐profile vegetation such as lichens and dwarf shrubs (Martin et al., 2020; Wilson & Martin, 2008). Rock ptarmigan have the widest latitudinal distribution (35°–83°N), inhabiting the high Arctic to the alpine tundra of southern Europe and Japan (Fuglei et al., 2020; Hotta et al., 2019; Montgomerie & Holder, 2020). They breed in lower alpine meadows at intermediate elevations, with graminoid ground cover interspersed with rock, woody shrubs and heather (Wilson & Martin, 2008).…”

Identification of Lagopus muta japonica plant food resources in the Northern Japan Alps using DNA metabarcoding

“…Recently, concerns have been raised about habitat destruction due to climate change. It is predicted that the habitat will be drastically reduced from 2081 to 2100 and that the future risk of extinction is very high [3]. To address these issues, restoration and management of the alpine meadow flora is being carried out in various alpine areas in Japan [9, 10].…”

“…The Japanese rock ptarmigan inhabits the alpine meadow zone, which is beyond the forest limit and scattered with Pinus pumila, at altitudes ranging from 2,000 to 3,000 m above sea level (a.s.l.) on the Japanese mainland [1,3] and feeds mainly on alpine plants found in the region. During the breeding season (April to May), the male occupies its territory of 0.015 to 0.072 km 2 [3].…”

“…on the Japanese mainland [1,3] and feeds mainly on alpine plants found in the region. During the breeding season (April to May), the male occupies its territory of 0.015 to 0.072 km 2 [3]. The female builds her nest at the base of P. pumila from June to July, and lay eggs in July.…”