Modeling highly pathogenic avian influenza transmission in wild birds and poultry in West Bengal, India

Pandit, Pranav; Bunn, David; Pande, Satish; Aly, Sharif S.

doi:10.1038/srep02175

Cited by 25 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…Breeding ranges of Baikal teal and spot-billed duck have been updated from [31]. [28]. During large-scale surveillance activities in north India from 2009 to 2011, no avian influenza viruses had been detected in 3,522 wild bird samples [29].…”

Section: Figurementioning

confidence: 99%

Wild bird surveillance around outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N8) virus in the Netherlands, 2014, within the context of global flyways

et al. 2015

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Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5N8) viruses that emerged in poultry in east Asia since 2010 spread to Europe and North America by late 2014. Despite detections in migrating birds, the role of free-living wild birds in the global dispersal of H5N8 virus is unclear. Here, wild bird sampling activities in response to the H5N8 virus outbreaks in poultry in the Netherlands are summarised along with a review on ring recoveries. HPAI H5N8 virus was detected exclusively in two samples from ducks of the Eurasian wigeon species, among 4,018 birds sampled within a three months period from mid-November 2014. The H5N8 viruses isolated from wild birds in the Netherlands were genetically closely related to and had the same gene constellation as H5N8 viruses detected elsewhere in Europe, in Asia and in North America, suggesting a common origin. Ring recoveries of migratory duck species from which H5N8 viruses have been isolated overall provide evidence for indirect migratory connections between East Asia and Western Europe and between East Asia and North America. This study is useful for better understanding the role of wild birds in the global epidemiology of H5N8 viruses. The need for sampling large numbers of wild birds for the detection of H5N8 virus and H5N8-virus-specific antibodies in a variety of species globally is highlighted, with specific emphasis in north-eastern Europe, Russia and northern China.

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Section: Figurementioning

confidence: 99%

Wild bird surveillance around outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N8) virus in the Netherlands, 2014, within the context of global flyways

et al. 2015

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“…We show through simulations that coexistence of both pathogens is possible, if all their within-population and cross-population reproduction numbers are smaller than one. This observation is very important since estimates of the reproduction number of HPAI H5N1 in poultry vary around one [14,15,24] but our results imply that even if the reproduction number is below one, HPAI may persist in the wild-domestic bird system, even under competition with LPAI. We note that in the sink-sink scenario, even though the species-specific, strain-specific reproduction and invasion numbers are below one, the overall strain-specific reproduction and invasion numbers are above one, which gives persistence.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 81%

Dynamics of low and high pathogenic avian influenza in wild and domestic bird populations

Tuncer

Torres

Martcheva

et al. 2015

Journal of Biological Dynamics

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This paper introduces a time-since-recovery structured, multi-strain, multi-population model of avian influenza. Influenza A viruses infect many species of wild and domestic birds and are classified into two groups based on their ability to cause disease: low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) and high pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). Prior infection with LPAI provides partial immunity towards HPAI. The model introduced in this paper structures LPAI-recovered birds (wild and domestic) with time-since-recovery and includes crossimmunity towards HPAI that can fade with time. The model has a unique disease-free equilibrium (DFE), unique LPAI-only and HPAIonly equilibria and at least one coexistence equilibrium. We compute the reproduction numbers of LPAI (R L ) and HPAI (R H ) and show that the DFE is locally asymptotically stable when R L < 1 and R H < 1. A unique LPAI-only (HPAI-only) equilibrium exists when R L > 1 (R H > 1) and it is locally asymptotically stable if HPAI (LPAI) cannot invade the equilibrium, that is, if the invasion numberR H L < 1 (R L H < 1). We show using numerical simulations that the ODE version of the model, which is obtained by discarding the time-since-recovery structures (making cross-immunity constant), can exhibit oscillations, and also that the pathogens LPAI and HPAI can coexist with sustained oscillations in both populations. Through simulations, we show that even if both populations (wild and domestic) are sinks when alone, LPAI and HPAI can persist in both populations combined. Thus, reducing the reproduction numbers of LPAI and HPAI in each population to below unity is not enough to eradicate the disease. The pathogens can continue to coexist in both populations unless transmission between the populations is reduced. ARTICLE HISTORY

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“…() estimated a between‐ subdistrict R 0 varying between 1.27 and 1.60 in Thailand using 1208 outbreaks that occurred between July 2004 and April 2005. In a study based on 33 outbreaks in West Bengal, India during the period between 2008 and 2010, Pandit, Bunn, Pande, and Aly () estimated R 0 that ranged from 0.859 to 1.069 and Bett et al. () found a between‐village R 0 ranging from 0.7 to 1.1 for an epidemic that occurred in Nigeria.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating the between-farm transmission rates for highly pathogenic avian influenza subtype H5N1 epidemics in Bangladesh between 2007 and 2013

Ssematimba

Okike

Ahmed³

et al. 2017

Transbound Emerg Dis

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Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) is classified by the World Organization for Animal Health as one of the notifiable diseases. Its occurrence is associated with severe socio-economic impacts and is also zoonotic. Bangladesh HPAI epidemic data for the period between 2007 and 2013 were obtained and split into epidemic waves based on the time lag between outbreaks. By assuming the number of newly infected farms to be binomially distributed, we fit a Generalized Linear Model to the data to estimate between-farm transmission rates (β). These parameters are then used together with the calculated infectious periods to estimate the respective basic reproduction numbers (R ). The change in β and R with time during the course of each epidemic wave was explored. Finally, sensitivity analyses of the effects of reducing the delay in detecting infection on a farm as well as extended infectiousness of a farm beyond the day of culling were assessed. The point estimates obtained for β ranged from 0.08 (95% CI: 0.06-0.10) to 0.11 (95% CI: 0.08-0.20) per infectious farm per day while R ranged from 0.85 (95% CI: 0.77-1.02) to 0.96 (95% CI: 0.72-1.20). Sensitivity analyses reveal that the estimates are quite robust to changes in the assumptions about the day in reporting infection and extended infectiousness. In the analysis allowing for time-varying transmission parameters, the rising and declining phases observed in the epidemic data were synchronized with the moments when R was greater and less than one, respectively. From an epidemiological perspective, the consistency of these estimates and their magnitude (R ≈ 1) indicate that the effectiveness of the deployed control measures was largely invariant between epidemic waves and the trend of the time-varying R supports the hypothesis of sustained farm-to-farm transmission that is possibly initiated by a few unique introductions.

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Modeling highly pathogenic avian influenza transmission in wild birds and poultry in West Bengal, India

Cited by 25 publications

References 49 publications

Wild bird surveillance around outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N8) virus in the Netherlands, 2014, within the context of global flyways

Wild bird surveillance around outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N8) virus in the Netherlands, 2014, within the context of global flyways

Dynamics of low and high pathogenic avian influenza in wild and domestic bird populations

Estimating the between-farm transmission rates for highly pathogenic avian influenza subtype H5N1 epidemics in Bangladesh between 2007 and 2013

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