Modeling HIV transmission among persons who inject drugs (PWID) at the “End of the HIV Epidemic” and during the COVID-19 pandemic

Jarlais, Don Des; Bobashev, Georgiy; Feelemyer, Jonathan; McKnight, Courtney

doi:10.1016/j.drugalcdep.2022.109573

Cited by 12 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…This concludes our analysis of the one-dimensional system given by (14). However recall that Equation ( 14) was obtained as an approximation of more realistic two-dimensional model ( 2) and (3) by realistically assuming that PWIDs inject quickly compared with the epidemiological changes which are slower.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 57%

“…This could be done by dividing the individuals with HIV into asymptomatic and symptomatic individuals and treating symptomatic individuals as in Salman 20 or dividing these individuals into more classes, including those on PrEP and antiretroviral therapy as in Jing et al, 17 in order to model these treatments. There are many other papers modeling HIV interventions, including Zhang et al, 15 Babaei et al, 13 Gountas et al, 18 Des Jarlais et al, 14 4) where 𝜎, 𝜏, 𝜌, and 𝜈 are defined by Equation (14).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This could be done by dividing the individuals with HIV into asymptomatic and symptomatic individuals and treating symptomatic individuals as in Salman 20 or dividing these individuals into more classes, including those on PrEP and antiretroviral therapy as in Jing et al, 17 in order to model these treatments. There are many other papers modeling HIV interventions, including Zhang et al, 15 Babaei et al, 13 Gountas et al, 18 Des Jarlais et al, 14 and Flountzi et al 45 and these give other options for modeling HIV interventions. To our knowledge our current article makes a research contribution in that it is the first time that disease awareness programs have been applied to mathematical models of HIV among PWIDs.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In Figure 3A,C,E, where R 0 > 1, we choose 𝜉 = 0.0, then from Equations ( 14) and ( 18 𝜌 = 0.0358/day and 𝜈 = 0.0014/day giving R 0 = 8.0977. For Figure 3B,D,F, where R 0 < 1, we choose 𝜉 = 0.7 then from Equation (14) we have 𝜎 = 0.143/day, 𝜏 = 0.143/day, 𝜌 = 0.1108/day and 𝜈 = 0.000429/day giving R 0 = 0.7837. So in this case as we can see from the figures on the left-hand side of Figure 4 the number of each of infected PWIDs and infected needles tends to a unique steady state level.…”

Section: Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…They then incorporate treatment of PWIDs, look at its effects and compare the basic reproduction numbers with and without treatment. Des Jarlais et al 14 looked at the spread of HIV among PWIDs in New York City, in the period 2012–2019, when there was little HIV and during the COVID pandemic which interfered with preventive measures. Using an agent‐based model they modeled sharing syringes and equipment to measure New York HIV incidence.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Incorporation of awareness programs into a model of the spread of HIV/AIDS among people who inject drugs

Alsharari

Greenhalgh

2022

Engineering Reports

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Mathematical modeling techniques have been used extensively during the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic. Drug injection causes increased HIV spread in most countries globally. The media is crucial in spreading health awareness by changing mixing behavior. The published studies show some of the ways that differential equation models can be employed to explain how media awareness programs influence the spread and containment of disease (Greenhalgh et al. Appl Math Comput. 2015;251:539-563). Here we build a differential equation model which shows how disease awareness programs can alter the HIV prevalence in a group of people who inject drugs (PWIDs). This builds on previous work by Greenhalgh and Hay (1997) and Liang et al. (2016).We have constructed a mathematical model to describe the improved model that reduces the spread of the diseases through the effect of awareness of disease on sharing needles and syringes among the PWID population. The model supposes that PWIDs clean their needles before use rather than after. We carry out a steady state analysis and examine local stability. Our discussion has been focused on two ways of studying the influence of awareness of infection levels in epidemic modeling. The key biological parameter of our model is the basic reproductive number R 0 . R 0 is a crucial number which determines the behavior of the infection. We find that if R 0 is less than one then the disease-free steady state is the unique steady state and moreover whatever the initial fraction of infected individuals then the disease will die out as time becomes large. If R 0 exceeds one there is the disease-free steady state and a unique steady state with disease present. We also showed that the disease-free steady state is locally asymptotically stable if R 0 is less than one, neutrally stable if R 0 is equal to one and unstable if R 0 exceeds one. In the last case, when R 0 is greater than one the endemic steady state was locally asymptotically stable. Our analytical results are confirmed by using simulation with realistic parameter values. In nontechnical terms, the number R 0 is a critical value describing how the disease will spread.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 57%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This could be done by dividing the individuals with HIV into asymptomatic and symptomatic individuals and treating symptomatic individuals as in Salman 20 or dividing these individuals into more classes, including those on PrEP and antiretroviral therapy as in Jing et al, 17 in order to model these treatments. There are many other papers modeling HIV interventions, including Zhang et al, 15 Babaei et al, 13 Gountas et al, 18 Des Jarlais et al, 14 and Flountzi et al 45 and these give other options for modeling HIV interventions. To our knowledge our current article makes a research contribution in that it is the first time that disease awareness programs have been applied to mathematical models of HIV among PWIDs.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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