Modeling Joint Relationship and Design Scenarios Between Precipitation, Surface Temperature, and Atmospheric Precipitable Water Over Mainland China

Ayantobo, Olusola O.; Wei, Jiahua; Wang, Guangqian

doi:10.1029/2020ea001513

Cited by 10 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 88 publications

(151 reference statements)

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“…The parameters of the copula function are estimated based on the maximum likelihood method [56]. Further, RMSE and Akaike information criterion (AIC) are adopted to optimize the copula function [57], and the corresponding formulas are as follows: Clayton-copula, Frank-copula, Gumbel-copula, Gaussian-copula, and t-copula were selected to construct joint distribution models, and their expressions are shown in Table 2. The parameters of the copula function are estimated based on the maximum likelihood method [56].…”

Section: Binary Copula Joint Distribution Functionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying the Impacts of Dry–Wet Combination Events on Vegetation Vulnerability in the Loess Plateau under a Changing Environment

Dong,

Gao,

Huang

et al. 2024

Water

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Extreme drought and flood events, as well as their combined events, pose significant challenges to global sustainable socio-economic development and ecological health. However, the impact of dry–wet combination events (DWCEs) on vegetation vulnerability remains to be investigated. The Loess Plateau (LP) was selected as the study area to explore the response time of vegetation to precipitation index changes by optimal correlation coefficient; then, the impact of different DWCEs on vegetation vulnerability under moderate and severe scenarios was analyzed; finally, a vegetation loss probability model was constructed based on the copula function and Bayesian framework, to quantify the vegetation loss probability under DWCEs stress. The results indicate that: (1) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) shows an upward trend in spring, summer, and autumn, with the proportion of areas are 90.5%, 86.2%, and 95.4%, respectively, and show an insignificant trend in winter; (2) the response time of vegetation to precipitation index changes tends to be one or two seasons; (3) moderate scenarios have more influence than severe scenarios, dry-to-wet events (DWEs), wet-to-dry events (WDE) and continuous dry events (CDE) in spring-summer have a significant impact on summer vegetation of Ningxia and Shanxi, and WDE and CDE have a higher impact on autumn vegetation. (4) in terms of the probability of vegetation loss, DWE, and CDE cause higher losses to summer vegetation, while WDE and CDE cause higher losses to autumn vegetation. This study quantifies the impact of adjacent seasonal DWCE stress on future vegetation vulnerability.

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Section: Binary Copula Joint Distribution Functionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying the Impacts of Dry–Wet Combination Events on Vegetation Vulnerability in the Loess Plateau under a Changing Environment

Dong,

Gao,

Huang

et al. 2024

Water

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“…Therefore, it is essential to precisely fit marginal distributions to drought variables. In this study, seven three-parameter distributions are considered [14,39,40]. Seven probability distribution functions, including Gamma, Loglogistic, Lognormal, Weibull, Pearson-III, Generalized Extreme Value, and Generalized Pareto distribution, are used to fit different drought variables.…”

Section: Copula-based Multivariable Frequency Analysis Of Drought Eve...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic Evolution and Copula-Based Multivariable Frequency Analysis of Meteorological Drought Considering the Spatiotemporal Variability in Northwestern China

Zhang,

Feng,

Wang

et al. 2023

Water

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Meteorological drought is a continuous spatiotemporal phenomenon that poses a serious threat to water resource security. Dynamic evolution and multivariable frequency analysis of meteorological drought are important for effective drought mitigation and risk management. Therefore, this study aims to analyze meteorological drought events in northwestern China between 1960 and 2018 based on the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) through a three-dimensional identification method. This study investigates the meteorological drought dynamic evolution on different time and space scales and evaluates the frequency analysis considering the spatiotemporal variability based on Copula. The results show that SPEI presents an upward trend in Northwestern China. A trend towards increased humidity is observed in arid regions, contrasted by a trend towards aridification in semi-arid and semi-humid areas, indicating that the spatial distribution of drought in the study area tends towards homogenization. The possibility of high-intensity drought events occurring in the same area was relatively low, whereas low-intensity drought events were frequent. Additionally, this study analyzes the dynamic migration process of individual drought events from a three-dimensional perspective. Neglecting any one drought variable could significantly underestimate the occurring probability of severe drought events. Therefore, a multivariable frequency analysis considering the spatiotemporal variability plays a crucial role in the formulation of drought prevention and mitigation strategies, as well as drought forecasting.

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“…By contrast, the low probability part is poorly tted, resulting from the limited time series and the discrete durations of drought. A number of studies have also stressed the importance of joint probability, because joint probability is an important guide for the assessment of water resources systems and offers great values for drought risk assessment (Ayantobo et al, 2021;Shiau, 2006). After the marginal distribution function and copula were determined, the drought risk assessment model was employed to project the probabilities of intra-seasonal and inter-seasonal drought risk for the next 30 years (2021-2050).…”

Section: Prediction Of Hydrological Drought Risk (1) Selection Of Mar...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Comprehensive Meteorological and Hydrological Drought Risks Under Changing Environment on the Wanquan River Basin, Southern China

Li¹,

Liu²,

2022

Preprint

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Drought is one of the most frequent and devastating natural disasters. Based on future climate scenarios and land use/land cover (LULC) patterns, this study employed the copula framework to calculate the probabilities of meteorological drought risk based on downscaled data as well as hydrological drought risks based on SWAT model simulation data for the next 30 years (2021-2050) in the Wanquan River Basin (WRB), and meanwhile, the relationship between hydrological and meteorological droughts was revealed by correlation analysis and cross wavelet transform (XWT). The results are as follows: (1) In the next 30 years, the risk of intra-seasonal meteorological drought (short-term drought) in the WRB is high at a probability of 40%-70%, while the risk of inter-seasonal meteorological drought is relatively small at a probability of close to 30%; (2) Compared with meteorological drought, the risk of intra-seasonal hydrological drought is small, but the probability of inter-seasonal hydrological drought (medium or long term drought) is 30%-50%, and the risk of hydrological drought in the upstream is greater than that in the downstream; (3) The future meteorological and hydrological droughts in the WRB are significantly and positively correlated, and that hydrological drought lags behind meteorological drought.

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Modeling Joint Relationship and Design Scenarios Between Precipitation, Surface Temperature, and Atmospheric Precipitable Water Over Mainland China

Cited by 10 publications

References 88 publications

Quantifying the Impacts of Dry–Wet Combination Events on Vegetation Vulnerability in the Loess Plateau under a Changing Environment

Quantifying the Impacts of Dry–Wet Combination Events on Vegetation Vulnerability in the Loess Plateau under a Changing Environment

Dynamic Evolution and Copula-Based Multivariable Frequency Analysis of Meteorological Drought Considering the Spatiotemporal Variability in Northwestern China

Comprehensive Meteorological and Hydrological Drought Risks Under Changing Environment on the Wanquan River Basin, Southern China

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