Modeling landscape dynamics in the central Brazilian savanna biome: future scenarios and perspectives for conservation

Ferreira, Manuel Eduardo; Ferreira, Laerte Guimarães; Miziara, Fausto; Soares‐Filho, Britaldo

doi:10.1080/1747423x.2012.675363

Cited by 57 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…The trend towards intensive agricultural use is likely to continue across the entire biome (Coe et al, 2009;Ferreira et al, 2013). The trend towards intensive agricultural use is likely to continue across the entire biome (Coe et al, 2009;Ferreira et al, 2013).…”

Section: Discussion Of the Combined Effects Of Water And Land Degradamentioning

confidence: 99%

The Brazilian Cerrado: assessment of water and soil degradation in catchments under intensive agricultural use

et al. 2014

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The Brazilian Cerrado is recognized as one of the most threatened biomes in the world, as the region has experienced a striking change from natural Cerrado vegetation to intense cash crop production. This paper reviews the history of land conversion in the Cerrado and the development of soil properties and water resources under past and ongoing land use. We compared soil and water quality parameters from different land uses considering 80 soil and 18 water studies conducted in different regions across the Cerrado to provide quantitative evidence of soil and water alterations from land use change. Following the conversion of native Cerrado, significant effects on soil pH, bulk density and available P and K for croplands and less-pronounced effects on pastures were evident. Soil total N did not differ between land uses because most of the sites classified as croplands were nitrogen-fixing soybeans, which are not artificially fertilized with N. In contrast, water quality studies showed nitrogen enrichment in agricultural catchments, indicating fertilizer impacts and potential susceptibility to eutrophication. Regardless of the land use, P is widely absent because of the high-fixing capacities of deeply weathered soils and the filtering capacity of riparian vegetation. Pesticides, however, were consistently detected throughout the entire aquatic system. In several case studies, extremely high-peak concentrations exceeded Brazilian and European Union (EU) water quality limits, which were potentially accompanied by serious health implications. Land use intensification is likely to continue, particularly in regions where less annual rainfall and severe droughts are projected in the northeastern and western Cerrado. Thus, the leaching risk and displacement of agrochemicals are expected to increase, particularly because the current legislation has caused a reduction in riparian vegetation. We conclude that land use intensification is likely to seriously limit the Cerrado's future regarding both agricultural productivity and ecosystem stability. Because only limited data are available, we recommend further field studies to understand the interaction between terrestrial and aquatic systems. This study may serve as a valuable database for integrated modelling to investigate the impact of land use and climate change on soil and water resources and to test and develop mitigation measures for the Cerrado.

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Section: Discussion Of the Combined Effects Of Water And Land Degradamentioning

confidence: 99%

The Brazilian Cerrado: assessment of water and soil degradation in catchments under intensive agricultural use

et al. 2014

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“…DINAMICA has been widely used for different purposes, among others: simulating spatial patterns of land use through the expansion of the colonization frontiers in Amazonia [26]; and modeling future land use change scenarios in Brazilian savannas [30] and national parks [31], Kenya's Eastern Arc Mountains [32], and tropical forest in Lao People's Democratic Republic [33]. These diverse applications show the flexibility of DINAMICA EGO as a modeling platform, as it allows adjusting different parameters to fit the model to the variables and dynamics of the case of study.…”

Section: Land Use Change Spatial Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Bayesian Spatial Model Highlights Distinct Dynamics in Deforestation from Coca and Pastures in an Andean Biodiversity Hotspot

Chadid

Dávalos²,

Molina

et al. 2015

Forests

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Abstract:The loss of tropical forests has continued in recent decades despite wide recognition of their importance to maintaining biodiversity. Here, we examine the conversion of forests to pastures and coca crops (illicit activity) on the San Lucas Mountain Range, Colombia for 2002-2007 and 2007-2010. Land use maps and biophysical variables were used as inputs to generate land use and cover change (LUCC) models using the DINAMICA EGO software. These analyses revealed a dramatic acceleration of the pace of deforestation in the region, with rates of conversion from forest to pasture doubling from the first to the second period. Altitude, distance to other crops, and distance to rivers were the primary drivers of deforestation. The influence of these drivers, however, differed markedly depending on whether coca cultivation or pastures replaced forest. Conversion to coca was more probable farther from other crops and from settlements. In contrast, proximity to other crops and to settlements increased conversion to pasture. These relationships highlight the different roles of coca and pastures in forest loss, OPEN ACCESSForests 2015, 6 3829 with coca tending to open up new forest frontiers, and pastures tending to consolidate agricultural expansion and urban influence. Large differences between LUCC processes for each period suggest highly dynamic changes, likely associated with shifting underlying causes of deforestation. These changes may relate to shifts in demand for illicit crops, land, or mining products; however, the data to test these hypotheses are currently lacking. More frequent and detailed monitoring is required to guide actions to decrease the loss of forest in this highly vulnerable biodiversity hotspot in the Northern Andes.

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“…Estimativas indicam, em uma projeção futura, que até 2050 ocorrerá o desmatamento de 13,5% do restante do bioma Cerrado, com taxas médias de 40.000 km² por década (FERREIRA et al, 2012). Desta forma, o monitoramento sistemático se torna imprescindível para ações de prevenção e combate ao desmatamento e às queimadas, em especial nos ecossistemas ameaçados pela ação antrópica, assim como, para traçar metas no planejamento para controle e gerenciamento eficiente para os próximos anos (PIROMAL et al, 2008).…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Análise Ambiental da Ocorrência das Queimadas na Porção Nordeste do Cerrado

2017

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Resumo: Com a crescente demanda nos últimos anos por áreas agricultáveis ainda não exploradas, o bioma Cerrado se tornou um dos ambientes mais favoráveis para a expansão da fronteira agrícola. Uma das consequências consiste no desmatamento e no aumento do número de queimadas, ocasionando a degradação e supressão de extensas áreas de ecossistemas naturais do bioma. Neste contexto, o presente trabalho teve como objetivo principal analisar a distribuição espacial das áreas queimadas na porção nordeste do bioma Cerrado. Desta forma, foi realizado o mapeamento das áreas queimadas em imagens do sensor Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), da plataforma Terra e Aqua, nos anos de 2012 a 2015 a partir do uso do Modelo Linear de Mistura Espectral (MLME). Os dados de precipitação do Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) do produto 3B43 foram utilizados para verificar a influência das chuvas na ocorrência das queimadas. Além disso, analisou-se a ocorrência das queimadas com o uso e cobertura da terra, com as Unidades de Conservação (UC) e com os municípios da área de estudo. Foi verificado que as áreas mais atingidas por queimadas são de Savana, Savana Lenhosa e Gramíneas e os anos que apresentaram menores índices de precipitações também foram os anos que ocorreram maior incidência de queimadas. A unidade de conservação mais atingida foi a Estação Ecológica Uruçuí-Uma no Piauí, com uma média de 36,5% de sua área queimada e os municípios mais atingidos estão localizados principalmente nos estados do Piauí e Maranhão, apresentando em média metade de suas áreas queimadas. Palavras

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Modeling landscape dynamics in the central Brazilian savanna biome: future scenarios and perspectives for conservation

Cited by 57 publications

References 26 publications

The Brazilian Cerrado: assessment of water and soil degradation in catchments under intensive agricultural use

The Brazilian Cerrado: assessment of water and soil degradation in catchments under intensive agricultural use

A Bayesian Spatial Model Highlights Distinct Dynamics in Deforestation from Coca and Pastures in an Andean Biodiversity Hotspot

Análise Ambiental da Ocorrência das Queimadas na Porção Nordeste do Cerrado

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