Modeling latent infection transmissions through biosocial stochastic dynamics

Epidemiological simulations as a method are used to better understand and predict the spreading of infectious diseases, for example of COVID-19.This paper presents an approach that combines a well-established approach from transportation modelling that uses person-centric data-driven human mobility modelling with a mechanistic infection model and a person-centric disease progression model. The model includes the consequences of different room sizes, air exchange rates, disease import, changed activity participation rates over time (coming from mobility data), masks, indoors vs. outdoors leisure activities, and of contact tracing. The model is validated against the infection dynamics in Berlin (Germany).The model can be used to understand the contributions of different activity types to the infection dynamics over time. The model predicts the effects of contact reductions, school closures/vacations, masks, or the effect of moving leisure activities from outdoors to indoors in fall, and is thus able to quantitatively predict the consequences of interventions. It is shown that these effects are best given as additive changes of the reinfection rate R. The model also explains why contact reductions have decreasing marginal returns, i.e. the first 50% of contact reductions have considerably more effect than the second 50%.Our work shows that is is possible to build detailed epidemiological simulations from microscopic mobility models relatively quickly. They can be used to investigate mechanical aspects of the dynamics, such as the transmission from political decisions via human behavior to infections, consequences of different lockdown measures, or consequences of wearing masks in certain situations. The results can be used to inform political decisions.Author summaryEvidently, there is an interest in models that are able to predict the effect of interventions in the face of pandemic diseases. The so-called compartmental models have difficulties to include effects that stem from spatial, demographic or temporal inhomongeneities. Person-centric models, often using social contact matrices, are difficult and time-consuming to build up. In the present paper, we describe how we built a largely data-driven person-centric infection model within less than a month when COVID-19 took hold in Germany. The model is based on our extensive experience with mobility modelling, and a synthetic data pipeline that starts with mobile phone data, while taking the infection dynamics and the disease progression from the literature. The approach makes the model portable to all places that have similar so-called activity-based models of travel in place, which are many places world-wide, and the number is continuously increasing. The model has been used since its inception to regularly advise the German government on expected consequences of interventions.

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“…Examples for similar approaches on the global or regional level are [43,[53][54][55]. Groups that started more recently include [56] and [57].…”

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confidence: 99%

Predicting the effects of COVID-19 related interventions in urban settings by combining activity-based modelling, agent-based simulation, and mobile phone data

Müller

Balmer²,

Charlton

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Self-Organised Critical Dynamics as a Key to Fundamental Features of Complexity in Physical, Biological, and Social Networks

Tadić

Melnik

2021

Dynamics

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Studies of many complex systems have revealed new collective behaviours that emerge through the mechanisms of self-organised critical fluctuations. Subject to the external and endogenous driving forces, these collective states with long-range spatial and temporal correlations often arise from the intrinsic dynamics with the threshold nonlinearity and geometry-conditioned interactions. The self-similarity of critical fluctuations enables us to describe the system using fewer parameters and universal functions that, on the other hand, can simplify the computational and information complexity. Currently, the cutting-edge research on self-organised critical systems across the scales strives to formulate a unifying mathematical framework, utilise the critical universal properties in information theory, and decipher the role of hidden geometry. As a prominent example, we study the field-driven spin dynamics on the hysteresis loop in a network with higher-order structures described by simplicial complexes, which provides a geometric-frustration environment. While providing motivational illustrations from physical, biological, and social systems, along with their networks, we also demonstrate how the self-organised criticality occurs at the interplay of the complex topology and driving mode. This study opens up new promising routes with powerful tools to address a long-standing challenge in the theory and applications of complexity science ingrained in the efficient analysis of self-organised critical states under the competing higher-order interactions embedded in complex geometries.

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Robust Global Trends during Pandemics: Analysing the Interplay of Biological and Social Processes

Mitrović Dankulov,

Tadić,

Melnik

2023

Dynamics

Self Cite

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The essence of the stochastic processes behind the empirical data on infection and fatality during pandemics is the complex interdependence between biological and social factors. Their balance can be checked on the data of new virus outbreaks, where the population is unprepared to fight the viral biology and social measures and healthcare systems adjust with a delay. Using a complex systems perspective, we combine network mapping with K-means clustering and multifractal detrended fluctuations analysis to identify typical trends in fatality rate data. We analyse global data of (normalised) fatality time series recorded during the first two years of the recent pandemic caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 as an appropriate example. Our results reveal six clusters with robust patterns of mortality progression that represent specific adaptations to prevailing biological factors. They make up two significant groups that coincide with the topological communities of the correlation network, with stabilising (group g1) and continuously increasing rates (group g2). Strong cyclic trends and multifractal small-scale fluctuations around them characterise these patterns. The rigorous analysis and the proposed methodology shed more light on the complex nonlinear shapes of the pandemic’s main characteristic curves, which have been discussed extensively in the literature regarding the global infectious diseases that have affected humanity throughout its history. In addition to better pandemic preparedness in the future, the presented methodology can also help to differentiate and predict other trends in pandemics, such as fatality rates, caused simultaneously by different viruses in particular geographic locations.

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Modeling latent infection transmissions through biosocial stochastic dynamics

Cited by 3 publications

References 46 publications

Predicting the effects of COVID-19 related interventions in urban settings by combining activity-based modelling, agent-based simulation, and mobile phone data

Predicting the effects of COVID-19 related interventions in urban settings by combining activity-based modelling, agent-based simulation, and mobile phone data

Self-Organised Critical Dynamics as a Key to Fundamental Features of Complexity in Physical, Biological, and Social Networks

Robust Global Trends during Pandemics: Analysing the Interplay of Biological and Social Processes

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