Modeling misperceptions in games

Abstract

In this article, a new method, called improved hypergame analysis, is developed for studying a conflict in which one or more players have misunderstood the true nature of the dispute. The method can be used for analyzing disputes having any finite number of participants consisting of individuals, organizations, nations or any kind of societal group. In order to extend the usefulness of hypergame analysis, the new and comprehensive approach is presented by giving the theoretical definitions, mathematical models, and practical procedures for performing a hypergame stability analysis. Because of the improvements to hypergame analysis, a conflict having misperceptions can be rigorously and accurately modeled and the perceived resolutions to the dispute can be properly ascertained.

The Analysis of Environmental Conflict in Changzhou Foreign Language School Using a Hybrid Game

“…In gametheoretic models, generally, the decision makers are assumed to have full understanding of conflict having common knowledge of all the aspects of conflict. But decision makers seldom have complete information or access to information about a certain conflict [22,23,28,29]. Each player, in this case, may have her own acuity about a certain conflict situation.…”

“…Hypergames provide a mathematical structure to model a conflict in which the players perceive a conflict differently. Moreover, it provides the stability analysis algorithm and/or solution concepts to trace out the feasible solution(s) to the game [22].…”

“…Hypergame theory was firstly presented by Bennett (1977) [28] who with Dando put this theory into the real-world application (the fall of France during World War II). The player, in a hypergame, may have misunderstanding about the preference, incorrect comprehension of the options available to other DMs, misunderstanding about the attitudes and coalition among DMs, unaware of all the players in a conflict or have any combination of above interpretations [22,25,28]. Application of the hypergame theory ranges from military, sports, cyber, business and resource allocation problems [29] to environmental conflicts.…”

“…So, at the first level of the conflict, hybrid game model has been used to analyze the conflict. As incomplete information, can be modeled as hypergame as different level of conflict [22,23]. So, in the present study, a hybrid game model has been developed by modeling the incomplete information available to DM2 as a hypergame at first level of the conflict and then analyze it using the GMCR [9] approach to conflict resolution.…”

“…Since the public, in the first level of the conflict, had the incomplete information about the situation so a hybrid game model is used to analyze the first phase of the conflict. The misperceptions or incomplete information can accurately be modeled as hypergames at different levels of a conflict [22,23]. In the latter phase, the stability and equilibrium conditions of the conflict are examined by using the GMCR.…”