Modeling of Epidemics-Covid-19 Using Differential Equations

Abstract

The study of epidemics since ancient times is an area that has aroused great interest; the history of humanity has been marked by major infections such as smallpox, the Black Death, measles, AIDS, cholera, Ebola and others. Humanity is being hit by epidemic outbreaks, which worries the World Health Organization due to the increase in the number of cases, with the Sars-CoV-2 coronavirus becoming a global pandemic on January 30, 2020. The same one that has captured the attention of The scientific community worldwide severe acute respiratory syndrome caused by the 2019-nCoV virus or Sars-CoV -2, results in substantial morbidity and mortality. Coronaviruses can cause diseases in humans and animals, they are a large family of viruses, their impact on humans results in respiratory infections, the recently discovered coronavirus causes the COVID-19 disease. To understand the dynamics of the epidemic allows us to design new measures that can be applied in order to combat the epidemiological outbreak, through mathematical modeling using differential equations as a tool used. to monitor the dynamics of the epidemiological behavior of Covid-19 in Ecuador. This research is developed through the explicit solution of the SIR model, and we model the development of short-term and more extensive epidemics such as COVID-19 in early stages and its best-known variants to predict the spread of infectious diseases in a population, both from the theoretical and computational point of view. Information about the Coronavirus was obtained from the Johns Hopkins University database.