A methodology to determine the residual lifetime of continuous caster machine roll is developed. The roll is modeled as a thick-walled cylinder with a semielliptical crack. The study takes into account the statistical variation of the characteristics of cyclic crack resistance under operating conditions. The procedure enables to determine the parameters of acceptable distribution of crack depth for a given number of stress cycles and the distribution of durability for a given allowable depth of crack.Keywords: residual lifetime, fatigue crack growth, semi-elliptical crack, continuous caster roll, probabilistic modeling 1. Introduction. During their operation, rolls of continuous casting machines (CCM) and hot rolling equipment undergo cyclic thermo-mechanical loading. This leads to emergence and growth of multiple surface cracks which often form networks (Mercado-Solis and Beynon, 2005, Colas et al, 1999. The roll lifetime is mainly limited by the thermo-fatigue growth of surface cracks up to a critical size. It therefore depends on the properties of roll material, the cyclic mechanical loading and temperature changes, casting speed, and other factors. The influence of the loading frequency and waveform on the fatigue crack growth rate of caster rolls materials were studied in e.g. Yasniy et al. (2006). For example, if the loading frequency decreases from 0,1 Hz to 0,01 Hz and the temperature changes from 20 o C to 600 o C, with equal J-integral range values J f , the FCG rate in a 25Cr1Mo1V steel decreases significantly. Also, frequency effects are more important with smaller values of J f . A similar effect, consisting in a FCG rate reduction with a