Modeling of Geophysical Flows through GPUFLOW

Cappello, Annalisa; Bilotta, Giuseppe; Ganci, Gaetana

doi:10.3390/app12094395

Cited by 10 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…Numerical modelling was performed using GPUFLOW [41,42], a physics-based model for the spatiotemporal evolution of lava flows, based on the Cellular Automaton paradigm, whose numerical stability, reliability, and accuracy has been assessed in previous sensitivity analyses [43,44]. The model has been successfully used to forecast different eruptive scenarios in various volcanic areas worldwide [5,[45][46][47][48], and to assess lava flow hazards [48][49][50] and mitigate the associated risk [51][52][53].…”

Section: Lava Flow Modelling Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Impact of Dynamic Emissivity–Temperature Trends on Spaceborne Data: Applications to the 2001 Mount Etna Eruption

et al. 2022

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Spaceborne detection and measurements of high-temperature thermal anomalies enable monitoring and forecasts of lava flow propagation. The accuracy of such thermal estimates relies on the knowledge of input parameters, such as emissivity, which notably affects computation of temperature, radiant heat flux, and subsequent analyses (e.g., effusion rate and lava flow distance to run) that rely on the accuracy of observations. To address the deficit of field and laboratory-based emissivity data for inverse and forward modelling, we measured the emissivity of ‘a’a lava samples from the 2001 Mt. Etna eruption, over the wide range of temperatures (773 to 1373 K) and wavelengths (2.17 to 21.0 µm). The results show that emissivity is not only wavelength dependent, but it also increases non-linearly with cooling, revealing considerably lower values than those typically assumed for basalts. This new evidence showed the largest and smallest increase in average emissivity during cooling in the MIR and TIR regions (~30% and ~8% respectively), whereas the shorter wavelengths of the SWIR region showed a moderate increase (~15%). These results applied to spaceborne data confirm that the variable emissivity-derived radiant heat flux is greater than the constant emissivity assumption. For the differences between the radiant heat flux in the case of variable and constant emissivity, we found the median value is 0.06, whereas the 25th and the 75th percentiles are 0.014 and 0.161, respectively. This new evidence has significant impacts on the modelling of lava flow simulations, causing a dissimilarity between the two emissivity approaches of ~16% in the final area and ~7% in the maximum thickness. The multicomponent emissivity input provides means for ‘best practice’ scenario when accurate data required. The novel approach developed here can be used to test an improved version of existing multi-platform, multi-payload volcano monitoring systems.

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Section: Lava Flow Modelling Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The effect of considering the variability in emissivity on Mt. Etna has a moderate but measurable impact on the forecasting of the emplacement (in the order of 10%, and up to 15% if considering different inclinations of the DEM [41,42]). This is partially due to the range of temperatures and viscosities of the lava on Mt.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of Dynamic Emissivity–Temperature Trends on Spaceborne Data: Applications to the 2001 Mount Etna Eruption

et al. 2022

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“…Preparing hazard maps [49,66,79,144], monitoring the progress of the lava flows [33,40,70] and forecasting lava displacements are amongst such challenges [47,137]. For this purpose, the use of numerical models is a great development, particularly because they can be run increasingly faster using more efficient algorithms and more powerful computers [86,148]. When using physically based numerical models, it is necessary to take into account the set of equations and simplifications they solve, which are derived from the equations of conservation of mass, momentum, and energy [67,68,128,129,140].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Attempt to Model Lava Flow Faster Than Real Time: An Example of La Palma Using VolcFlow

2022

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The eruption of Cumbre Vieja (also known as Tajogaite volcano, 19 September–13 December 2021, Spain) is an example of successful emergency management. The lessons learnt are yet to be fully disclosed as is whether the response can be further improved. The latter may include tools to predict lava flow inundation rheological characteristics, amongst other issues related to volcanic eruptions (i.e., ash fall and gas emission). The aim of this study was to explore if a scientific open-source, readily available, lava-flow-modelling code (VolcFlow) would suffice for lava emplacement forecasting, focusing on the first seven days of the eruption. We only the open data that were released during the crisis and previously available data sets. The rheology of the lava, as well as the emission rate, are of utmost relevance when modelling lava flow, and these data were not readily available. Satellite lava extent analysis allowed us to preliminarily estimate its velocity, the average flow emitted, and flow viscosity. These estimates were numerically adjusted by maximising the Jaccard morphometric index and comparing the area flooded by the lava for a simulated seven-day advance with the real advance of the lava in the same timescale. The manual search for the solution to this optimization problem achieved morphometric matches of 85% and 60%. We obtained an estimated discharge rate of about 140 m3/s of lava flow during the first 24 h of the eruption. We found the emission rate then asymptotically decreased to 60 m3/s. Viscosity varied from 8 × 106 Pa s, or a yield strength of 42 × 103 Pa, in the first hours, to 4 × 107 Pa s and 35 × 103 Pa, respectively, during the remainder of the seven days. The simulations of the lava emplacement up to 27 September showed an acceptable distribution of lava thickness compared with the observations and an excellent geometrical fit. The calculations of the calibrated model required less time than the simulated time span; hence, flow modelling can be used for emergency management. However, both speed and accuracy can be improved with some extra developments and guidance on the data to be collected. Moreover, the available time for management, once the model is ready, quasi-linearly increases as the forecasting time is extended. This suggests that a predictive response during an emergency with similar characteristics is achievable, provided that an adequate rheological description of the lava is available.

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“…After a two‐year recharge phase, following the brief flank eruption of December 2018 (Aloisi et al., 2020; Cappello et al., 2022), a lava fountain sequence began on 13 December 2020, heralded by three seismic swarms occurring during the two weeks before (Bonaccorso et al., 2021; Calvari et al., 2022). More than 60 lava fountains were erupted from summit SE crater (SEC) until 21 February 2022.…”

Section: Etna 2020–2022 Lava Fountains Sequencementioning

confidence: 99%

A New Approach for Real‐Time Erupted Volume Estimation From High‐Precision Strain Detection Validated by Satellite Topographic Monitoring

Bonaccorso,

Carleo,

Currenti

et al. 2023

Geophysical Research Letters

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Timely estimations of magma volumes emitted during an eruption or a sequence of explosive events are vital for investigating the eruptive activity and evaluating the associated hazard. A reliable method for estimating erupted volumes is based on the analysis of digital surface models that nowadays can be obtained subsequently using stereo or tri‐stereo optical satellite imagery. However, the real‐time estimation of the erupted volumes is still an open challenge. Here, we explore the capacity of extracting volume estimates from continuous measurements of volumetric strain changes recorded by borehole dilatometers. We compare the volumes derived from numerous high spatial resolution satellite images with high precision strain records at Etna during 2020–2022, when more than 60 lava fountains occurred. The good correlation between the two data sets shows that strain changes can be used as a proxy to estimate the emitted volumes both over time and in real‐time.

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Modeling of Geophysical Flows through GPUFLOW

Cited by 10 publications

References 51 publications

The Impact of Dynamic Emissivity–Temperature Trends on Spaceborne Data: Applications to the 2001 Mount Etna Eruption

The Impact of Dynamic Emissivity–Temperature Trends on Spaceborne Data: Applications to the 2001 Mount Etna Eruption

Attempt to Model Lava Flow Faster Than Real Time: An Example of La Palma Using VolcFlow

A New Approach for Real‐Time Erupted Volume Estimation From High‐Precision Strain Detection Validated by Satellite Topographic Monitoring

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