Modeling of leptospirosis outbreaks in relation to hydroclimatic variables in the northeast of Argentina

Abstract

The transmission of leptospirosis is conditioned by climatic variables. In northeastern Argentina leptospirosis outbreaks occur mainly in coincidence with periods of abundant precipitation and high hydrometric level. A Susceptible Infectious Recovered Epidemiological Model (SIR) is proposed, which incorporates hydroclimatic variables for the three most populated cities in the area (Santa Fe, Parana and Rosario), between 2009 and 2018. Results obtained by solving the proposed SIR model for the 2010 outbreaks are in good agreement with the actual data, capturing the dynamics of the leptospirosis outbreak wave. However, the model does not perform very well when isolated cases appear outside the outbreak periods, probably due to non-climatic factors not explicitly considered in the present version of the model. Nevertheless, the dynamic modeling of infectious diseases considering hydroclimatic variables constitutes a climatic service for the public health system, not yet available in Argentina.