Modeling of Persistence, Non-Acceptance and Sufficiency in Long-Term Energy Scenarios for Germany

Abstract

Long-term transition pathways to a low-carbon energy system are analysed by applying the energy system model REMod. All in all, the paper contributes to the current research through an innovative scenario approach, using assumptions for societal trends and quantitative results for scenarios, analysing the paths towards climate neutrality and defossilization in 2050. In the case study of Germany, these trends and drivers influence the results and the technology composition in each consumption sector (buildings, transport, and industry). Across all scenarios, it can be observed that the electrification of all sectors is important for the defossilization of the energy system, as the direct use of electricity from renewable energy is more efficient than the consumption of carbon-neutral synthetic energy carriers. However, different consumer behavior (e.g., non-acceptance or resistance against specific technologies) influences not only the efficient use of (green) electricity, it also changes the optimal pathways of the transition to paths with greater efforts. One potential societal trend—sufficiency—could be an important cornerstone for reaching the targets, as the required expansion and exchange of technologies are lower and thus facilitate the transition.

Sufficiency as a Criterion for Sustainability Assessment

“…For the goal of the consistency strategy of a 100% renewable energy supply, efficiency plays a major role in form of flexibility, to efficiently integrate the fluctuation of solar and wind energy [7]. As summarized by [8], absolute emission reductions are limited by economic growth and the rebound effect.…”

“…recycling is a form of consistency improvement, while only a complete circularity agrees with zero resource input and is respecting the finity of resources and the environmental impacts of their extraction. The limitations of consistency are assigned to the uncertainty of technological optimization and global justice [8], underlining the need of sufficiency considerations.…”

“…Essentially, not the environmental impact, but its impact on the users is the subjective. As human behaviour is a key carrier for the success of sufficiency strategies [8], user satisfaction is of a general interest as long as it is staying with the concept of basic needs. The criterion of 'Use qualities' is thereby supporting shared spaces for social exchange.…”

Understanding Attitudes towards Renewable Energy Technologies and the Effect of Local Experiences

“…The acceptance of the local population is a considerable condition for the realization of energy projects and thereby for meeting energy policy goals. Energy transition scenarios with a high degree of non-acceptance of new technologies by the population can significantly halt the reaching of carbon-neutral energy systems and increase energy import dependencies [7]. Resistance from the population repeatedly led to considerable delays and the need to re-plan projects [8][9][10].…”

Synergies between Renewable Energy and Flexibility Investments: A Case of a Medium-Sized Industry

“…Studies on optimal investments at a national level which consider a variety of potentials, e.g., [3][4][5], found that both RE and complementing flexibility investments are necessary for cost-effective and sustainable decarbonization efforts. Studies at an end-user level are sparse and often focus of selected technologies or applications.…”