Modeling on population growth and its adaptation: A comparative analysis between Bangladesh and India

Abstract

The biggest challenge in the world is population growth and determining how society and the state adapt to it as it directly affects the fundamental human rights such as food, clothing, housing, education, medical care, etc. The population estimates of any country play an important role in making the right decision about socio-economic and population development projects. Unpredictable population growth can be a curse. The purpose of this research article is to compare the accuracy process and proximity of three mathematical model such as Malthusian or exponential growth model, Logistic growth model and Least Square model to make predictions about the population growth of Bangladesh and India at the end of 21st century. Based on the results, it has been observed that the population is expected to be 429.32(in million) in Bangladesh and 3768.53 (in million) in India by exponential model, 211.70(in million) in Bangladesh and 1712.94(in million) in India by logistic model and 309.28 (in million) in Bangladesh and 2686.30 (in million) in India by least square method at the end of 2100. It was found that the projection data from 2000 to 2020 using the Logistic Growth Model was very close to the actual data. From that point of view, it can be predicted that the population will be 212 million in Bangladesh and 1713 million in India at the end of the 21st century. Although transgender people are recognized as the third sex but their accurate statistics data is not available. The work also provides a comparative scenario of how the state has adapted to the growing population in the past and how they will adapt in the future.

Forecasting the Ratio of the Rural Population in Iraq Using Box-Jenkins Methodology

“…The analysis showed a downward trend in the population. In [7], a study was carried out using the logistic model and least square model to do a comparative study for making predictions of population growth between Bangladesh and India at the end of the 21st century. It was found that the projection data from 2000 * This is an open access under a CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/) to 2020 using the established models closely match the real data.…”