Modeling past and future surface mass balance of the Northern Patagonia Icefield

Schaefer, Marius; Machguth, Horst; Falvey, Mark; Casassa, Gino

doi:10.1002/jgrf.20038

Cited by 75 publications

(156 citation statements)

References 54 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

137

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…The precipitation on the NPI appears as the area of larger annual accumulation which can be above 14 m per year in high elevations. Similar result was found by Schaefer et al [15] who used the same WFR model but for the 2005-2011 period. Note that the PRECIS-DGF model also resolved larger precipitation on the NPI region (same result is found with the WFR at 15 km horizontal resolution domain 2, not shown).…”

Section: Spatial Simulationsupporting

confidence: 89%

Modeling Near-Surface Air Temperature and Precipitation Using WRF with 5-km Resolution in the Northern Patagonia Icefield: A Pilot Simulation

Villarroel¹,

Carrasco²,

Casassa³

et al. 2013

IJG

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The regional Weather and Research Forecast (WRF) Model was run for the 2000-2010 period over the Northern Patagonia Icefield (NPI) with an horizontal resolution of 5 km. The regional model was initialized using the NCEP/NCAR atmospheric Reanalysis database. The simulation results, centered over the NPI, were validated against the observed data from the local surface stations in order to evaluate the improvement of the model results due to its increased horizontal resolution with respect to the lower resolution from Global Climate Model simulations. Interest in the NPI is due to 1) the large body of frozen water exposed to the impact of the warming planet, 2) the scarce availability of observed meteorological and glaciological information in this large and remote icefield, and 3) the need to validate the model behavior in simulating the current climate and its variability in complex terrain. The results will shed light on the degree of confidence in simulating future climate scenarios in the region and also in similar geographical settings. Based on this study subsequent model runs will allow modeling future climate changes in Patagonia, which is basic information for estimating glacier variations to be expected during this century.

show abstract

Section: Spatial Simulationsupporting

confidence: 89%

Modeling Near-Surface Air Temperature and Precipitation Using WRF with 5-km Resolution in the Northern Patagonia Icefield: A Pilot Simulation

Villarroel¹,

Carrasco²,

Casassa³

et al. 2013

IJG

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The north-south orientation and high altitude of the Andes chain at this latitude acts as a geographical barrier for the moisture, generating a föhn effect that creates a strong west-to-east gradient of precipitation, with considerably dryer conditions and higher temperatures on the eastern side of the icefield (Fujiyoshi et al, 1987). The average annual precipitation between 1975 and 2011 is 8.03 ± 0.37 m (Schaefer et al, 2013) with little seasonal variability. The 0 • C isotherm altitude is at about 2,000 m a.s.l.…”

Section: Study Area: Northern Patagonian Icefield Chilementioning

confidence: 99%

Geodetic Mass Balance of the Northern Patagonian Icefield from 2000 to 2012 Using Two Independent Methods

2018

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

We compare two independent estimates of the rate of elevation change and geodetic mass balance of the Northern Patagonian Icefield (NPI) between 2000 (3,856 km 2 ) and 2012 (3,740 km 2 ) from space-borne data. Both methods lead to similar and strongly negative icefield-wide mass balance rates of −1.02 ± 0.21 and −1.06 ± 0.14 m w.e. yr −1 respectively, which is in agreement with earlier studies. Contrasting glacier responses are observed, with individual glacier mass balance rates ranging from −0.15 to −2.30 m w.e. yr −1 (standard deviation = 0.49 m w.e. yr −1 ; N = 38). For individual glaciers, the two methods agree within error bars, except for small glaciers poorly sampled in the SPOT5 DEM due to clouds. Importantly, our study confirms the lack of penetration of the C-band SRTM radar signal into the NPI snow and firn except for a region above 2,900 m a.s.l. covering <1% of the total area. Ignoring penetration would bias the mass balance by only 0.005 m w.e. yr −1 . A strong advantage of the ASTER method is that it relies only on freely available data and can thus be extended to other glacierized areas.

show abstract

“…The elevation differences between the 20 km DEM of the WRF-model and the DEM of our glacier model reach several 100 m (Figure 4), demanding additional downscaling steps. We took a simple approach similar to that of previous workers (e.g., Machguth et al, 2009;Schaefer et al, 2013). Assuming that the WRF-modeled temperature and precipitation reflect the center of each 20 km cell, we interpolated among cells, accounting for the topography using temperature lapse rates and precipitation gradients.…”

Section: Downscalingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mass Balance Evolution of Black Rapids Glacier, Alaska, 1980–2100, and Its Implications for Surge Recurrence

et al. 2017

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Surge-type Black Rapids Glacier, Alaska, has undergone strong retreat since it last surged in [1936][1937]. To assess its evolution during the late Twentieth and Twenty-first centuries and determine potential implications for surge likelihood, we run a simplified glacier model over the periods 1980-2015 (hindcasting) and 2015-2100 (forecasting). The model is forced by daily temperature and precipitation fields, with downscaled reanalysis data used for the hindcasting. A constant climate scenario and an RCP 8.5 scenario based on the GFDL-CM3 climate model are employed for the forecasting. Debris evolution is accounted for by a debris layer time series derived from satellite imagery (hindcasting) and a parametrized debris evolution model (forecasting). A retreat model accounts for the evolution of the glacier geometry. Model calibration, validation and parametrization rely on an extensive set of in situ and remotely sensed observations. To explore uncertainties in our projections, we run the glacier model in a Monte Carlo fashion, varying key model parameters and input data within plausible ranges. Our results for the hindcasting period indicate a negative mass balance trend, caused by atmospheric warming in the summer, precipitation decrease in the winter and surface elevation lowering (climate-elevation feedback), which exceed the moderating effects from increasing debris cover and glacier retreat. Without the 2002 rockslide deposits on Black Rapids' lower reaches, the mass balances would be more negative, by ∼ 20% between the 2003 and 2015 mass-balance years. Despite its retreat, Black Rapids Glacier is substantially out of balance with the current climate. By 2100, ∼ 8% of Black Rapids' 1980 area are projected to vanish under the constant climate scenario and ∼ 73% under the RCP 8.5 scenario. For both scenarios, the remaining glacier portions are out of balance, suggesting continued retreat after 2100. Due to mass starvation, a surge in the Twenty-first century is unlikely. The projected retreat will affect the glacier's runoff and change the landscape in the Black Rapids area markedly.

show abstract

Modeling past and future surface mass balance of the Northern Patagonia Icefield

Cited by 75 publications

References 54 publications

Modeling Near-Surface Air Temperature and Precipitation Using WRF with 5-km Resolution in the Northern Patagonia Icefield: A Pilot Simulation

Modeling Near-Surface Air Temperature and Precipitation Using WRF with 5-km Resolution in the Northern Patagonia Icefield: A Pilot Simulation

Geodetic Mass Balance of the Northern Patagonian Icefield from 2000 to 2012 Using Two Independent Methods

Mass Balance Evolution of Black Rapids Glacier, Alaska, 1980–2100, and Its Implications for Surge Recurrence

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About