Modeling Perennial Crop Supply: An Illustration from the Pecan Industry

Abstract

Two methodological approaches were applied to estimating the number of non-bearing trees in the absence of such data using data for the Southern USA pecan industry. The first approach distinguished between bearing and non-bearing phases of a tree life and directly estimated the number of non-bearing trees. The second focused on indirect estimating of the non-bearing tree number from changes in production. This approach relaxed the assumption of maintaining maximum yields for infinite period as used in earlier studies. Empirical applications used two data sets from the pecan industry. The comparison of empirical results suggested that the first method was more accurate than the alternative approach in predicting the number of newly planted trees over an extended period of time. Additional data collection will allow for further application of available methodology to the pecan indust~,

An Empirical Analysis of the Supply Response of Coconut by Vector Error Correction Approach: Cross Country Comparison

“…Previous studies on agricultural supply response have distinguished the supply response of annual crops from perennials due to certain distinctive characteristics of plantation crops. Nerlove and Bachman (1960); French and Mathews (1971) ;Trivedi, (1986); Akiyama and Trivedi (1987); Kalaitzandonakes and Shonkwiler(1992) and Elnagheeb and Florkowski, (1993), have discussed these specific characters in detail. Firstly, there is a biologically determined gestation period between planting and initial harvesting which is then followed by an extended period of productivity.…”

“…However, the structural parameters in the model were under-identified. Extensions of this model were employed in later studies by Alston, et al, (1980) on Australian orange industry; Bushnell and King, (1986) on almond ;Petersen, (1993) on apple; Elnagheeb and Florkowski, (1993) on the pecan industry; Carman and Craft, (1998) on avocado; Devadoss and Luckstead, (2010) on apple, etc. Hartley, et al, (1987) and Akiyama and Trivedi, (1987) were the first to note that there is a qualitative difference between new planting and replanting investment decisions.…”

Three essays on the idiosyncrasies of a perennial crop : the case of the US almond market

“…Other studies, especially when cost data was unavailable, have substituted the profit proxy variable with variables representing real output (e.g. Kalaitzandonakes and Shonkwiler, 1992;Elnagheeb and Florkowski, 1993;).…”