Modeling Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) Disease Propagation and Control Strategies Using Memoryless State Transitions

Mitchell, Mark B.; Beyeler, Walter E.; Finley, Patrick D.; Finley, Melissa R.

doi:10.22158/asir.v1n2p90

Cited by 4 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…Few studies have been reported in developing mathematical models to simulate and assess the effectiveness of various PPR control strategies. Mitchell et al (2017) [ 6 ] noticed a lack of empirical studies on PPR. Such models provide policy-makers with a tool to develop powerful containment strategies for handling out-breaks of PPR by understanding how it spreads through herds, the uncertainty of the disease parameters, and the impact of each herd’s configuration on the disease’s spread.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Epidemiology and Cost of Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) Eradication in Small Ruminants in the United Arab Emirates—Disease Spread and Control Strategies Simulations

Fathelrahman

Reeves

Mohamed

et al. 2021

Animals

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Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is an important infectious viral disease of domestic small ruminants that threatens the food security and sustainable livelihood of farmers across Middle East, Africa, and Asia. The objective of this research is to analyze the disease’s spread and its impacts on direct government costs through conducting three simulations of different control strategies to reduce and quickly eradicate PPR from the United Arab Emirates in the near future. A Modified Animal Disease Spread Model was developed in this study to suit the conditions of the United Arab Emirates. The initial scenario represents when mass vaccination is ceased, and moderate movement restrictions are applied. The second scenario is based on mass vaccination and stamping out the disease, whereas the third simulation scenario assumes mass and ring vaccination when needed, very strict movement control, and stamping out. This study found that the third scenario is the most effective in controlling and eradicating PPR from the UAE. The outbreak duration in days was reduced by 57% and the number of infected animals by 77% when compared to the other scenarios. These results are valuable to the country’s animal health decision-makers and the government’s efforts to report to the World Animal Health Organization (OIE) regarding the progress made towards declaration of the disease’s eradication. They are also useful to other concerned entities in other Middle Eastern, North African, and Asian countries where the disease is spreading.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Epidemiology and Cost of Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) Eradication in Small Ruminants in the United Arab Emirates—Disease Spread and Control Strategies Simulations

Fathelrahman

Reeves

Mohamed

et al. 2021

Animals

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“…The NAADSM (North American Animal Disease Spread Model (54,55), autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) (56), Least Cost Path (LCP) (57), Random forest (44) Ensemble Algorithm (58), Event-Driven Memoryless model of state transitions. (59), Regression Tree Models (44) and Mantel Correlograms (15), which were employed to investigate the relationship between genetic distances and various measures of network and geographic distance. Moreover, 4 studies formally analyzed PPR seasonality through the assessment of seasonal trends distributed geographically and socioeconomically (31,37,43,60)…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…GIS-based multi-criterion decision analysis was used to identify areas at risk of PPR occurrence and spread (62). Event-driven model of PPR developed from susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model was used to study how the virus propagates in memoryless state transitions in Afghanistan (59).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Those covariables included temporal and spatial aspects, production systems and the use of PPR control strategies such as vaccination and early reporting systems (8) (43). Moreover, all six studies evaluating the impact of vaccination reported a decreased risk of PPR outbreaks in areas participating in PPR vaccination programs (9,53,59,61,64,72). Despite the indisputable significance of PPR transmission dynamics, most studies have used temporal and spatial resolution during epidemiological data collection.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Analysis of spatial and temporal risk of Peste des Petits Ruminants Virus (PPRV) outbreaks in endemic settings: A scoping review

Mwanandota,

Hakizimana,

Machuka

et al. 2024

Preprint

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BackgroundSustained Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) circulation, as evidenced by surveillance, shows PPR endemicity in Africa and Asia. Regional transmission of PPR is enabled by joining numerous epidemiological factors. Spatial, spatiotemporal and transmission dynamics analytical methods have been used to explore the risk of PPR transmission. The dearth of information on the risk factors associated with spatiotemporal distribution and transmission dynamics of PPR at a regional scale is high. Through a thorough analysis of peer-reviewed literature, this study sought to evaluate the risks of Peste des Petit ruminant virus (PPRV) epidemics by noting distinctions of geographical and spatial-temporal approaches applied in endemic settings.MethodsA scoping literature review of PPR research publications that used spatial and spatiotemporal approaches to assess PPR risks in endemic areas was carried out using PubMed and Google Scholar data base.ResultsOut of 42 papers selected 19 focused on Asia, 15 on Africa, and 8 had a global view. 61.9% used clustering analysis while 35.7% used spatial autocorrelation. Temporal trends were described by most studies at about 71.2% while modeling approaches were used by 13 articles (30%). Five risk factors evaluated include demographics and livestock–wildlife interactions (n = 20), spatial accessibility (n = 19), trade and commerce (n = 17), environment and ecology (n = 12), and socioeconomic aspects (n=9). Transmission dynamics of PPR was covered in almost all articles except 2 articles but it has linked all the risk factors.ConclusionsThe review has contributed to the shifting and improvement of our understanding on PPR outbreaks in endemic settings and support evidence-based decision-making to mitigate the impact of the virus on small ruminant populations. Linkage of other risk factors to livestock trade which is the major driver of livestock movement has been shown to pose a significant risk of PPR epidemics in endemic settings. With many studies being found in Asia compared to Africa, future development of predictive models to evaluate possible eradication strategies at national and regional levels should also consider Africa.

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“…Depending on the context, mass or targeted vaccination is required [ 4 , 6 ]. In any case, logistical support like cold chains is crucial for effective PPR vaccination campaigns [ 7 , 8 ]. In addition, socio-economic factors that affect willingness to vaccinate or access to vaccines can jeopardize their success.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ex-ante impact of pest des petits ruminant control on micro and macro socioeconomic indicators in Senegal: A system dynamics modelling approach

et al. 2023

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Vaccination is considered as the main tool for the Global Control and Eradication Strategy for peste des petits ruminants (PPR), and the efficacity of the PPR-vaccine in conferring long-life immunity has been established. Despite this, previous studies asserted that vaccination can be expensive and consequently, the effectiveness of disease control may not necessarily translate to overall profit for farmers. Also, the consequences of PPR control on socioeconomic indicators like food and nutrition security at a macro-national level have not been explored thoroughly. Therefore, this study seeks to assess ex-ante the impact of PPR control strategies on farm-level profitability and the socioeconomic consequences concerning food and nutrition security at a national level in Senegal. A bi-level system dynamics model, compartmentalised into five modules consisting of integrated production-epidemiological, economics, disease control, marketing, and policy modules, was developed with the STELLA Architect software, validated, and simulated for 30 years at a weekly timestep. The model was parameterised with data from household surveys from pastoral areas in Northern Senegal and relevant existing data. Nine vaccination scenarios were examined considering different vaccination parameters (vaccination coverage, vaccine wastage, and the provision of government subsidies). The findings indicate that compared to a no-vaccination scenario, all the vaccination scenarios for both 26.5% (actual vaccination coverage) and 70% (expected vaccination coverage) resulted in statistically significant differences in the gross margin earnings and the potential per capita consumption for the supply of mutton and goat meat. At the prevailing vaccination coverage (with or without the provision of government subsidies), farm households will earn an average gross margin of $69.43 (annually) more than without vaccination, and the average per capita consumption for mutton and goat meat will increase by 1.13kg/person/year. When the vaccination coverage is increased to the prescribed threshold for PPR eradication (i.e., 70%), with or without the provision of government subsidies, the average gross margin earnings would be $72.23 annually and the per capita consumption will increase by 1.23kg/person/year compared to the baseline (without vaccination). This study’s findings offer an empirical justification for a sustainable approach to PPR eradication. The information on the socioeconomic benefits of vaccination can be promoted via sensitization campaigns to stimulate farmers’ uptake of the practice. This study can inform investment in PPR control.

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Modeling Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) Disease Propagation and Control Strategies Using Memoryless State Transitions

Abstract: Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) is an infectious disease affecting goats and sheep. PPR has

Cited by 4 publications

References 15 publications

Epidemiology and Cost of Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) Eradication in Small Ruminants in the United Arab Emirates—Disease Spread and Control Strategies Simulations

Epidemiology and Cost of Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) Eradication in Small Ruminants in the United Arab Emirates—Disease Spread and Control Strategies Simulations

Analysis of spatial and temporal risk of Peste des Petits Ruminants Virus (PPRV) outbreaks in endemic settings: A scoping review

Ex-ante impact of pest des petits ruminant control on micro and macro socioeconomic indicators in Senegal: A system dynamics modelling approach

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