Modeling Potential Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Process Chains and Effects From Artificial Lake‐Level Lowering at Gepang Gath Lake, Indian Himalaya

Sattar, Ashim; Allen, Simon; Mergili, Martin; Haeberli, Wilfried; Frey, Holger; Kulkarni, Anil V.; Haritashya, Umesh K.; Huggel, Christian; Goswami, Ajanta; Ramsankaran, Raaj

doi:10.1029/2022jf006826

Cited by 18 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 104 publications

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“…The direction of mass movement intrusion into a lake can significantly influence impulse wave behavior. This is because of the uni‐ and bi‐directional nature of the impulse wave propagation when the mass movement intrusion occurs as headward and indirect impact, respectively (Heller et al., 2009; Sattar et al., 2023). In the case of multiple impacts (headward + oblique) into a lake, we consider it to be a headward impact if any one of the trajectories is along the major axis.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mass Movement Hazard and Exposure in the Himalaya

Dubey,

Sattar,

Goyal

et al. 2023

Earth's Future

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Himalaya is experiencing frequent catastrophic mass movement events such as avalanches and landslides, causing loss of human lives and infrastructure. Millions of people reside in critical zones potentially exposed to such catastrophes. Despite this, a comprehensive assessment of mass movement exposure is lacking at a regional scale. Here, we developed a novel method of determining mass movement trajectories and applied it to the Himalayan Mountain ranges for the first time to quantify the exposure of infrastructure, waterways, roadways, and population in six mountain ranges, including Hindu Kush, Karakoram, western Himalaya, eastern Himalaya, central Himalaya, and Hengduan Shan. Our results reveal that the exposure of buildings and roadways to mass movements is highest in Karakoram, whereas central Himalaya has the highest exposed waterways. The hotspots of exposed roadways are concentrated in Nepal, the North Indian states of Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, the Union Territory of Ladakh, and China's Sichuan Province. Our analysis shows that the population in the central Himalaya is currently at the highest exposure to mass movement impacts. Projected future populations based on Shared Socio‐economic and Representative Concentration Pathways suggest that changing settlement patterns and emission scenarios will significantly influence the potential impact of these events on the human population. Assessment of anticipated secondary hazards (glacial lake outburst floods) shows an increase in probable headward impacts of mass movements on glacial lakes in the future. Our findings will support researchers, policymakers, stakeholders, and local governments in identifying critical areas that require detailed investigation for risk reduction and mitigation.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mass Movement Hazard and Exposure in the Himalaya

Dubey,

Sattar,

Goyal

et al. 2023

Earth's Future

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“…Geomorphic impacts resulting from fragile mountain slopes such as outburst floods, landslides, debris flows, rock falls, ice and rock avalanches, ground subsidence and other mass wasting events can have catastrophic consequences that extend far downstream. Studies have indicated a potential link between large scale, highly mobile mass movements and changes in permafrost in the upstream catchment, however such links remain largely speculative owing to a lack of in situ observations (Maharjan et al 2021, Shugar et al 2021, Sattar et al 2023. A slow onset hazard related partially to a thawing permafrost is the constant rise of sediments in river discharge, posing challenges especially to hydropower infrastructure (Li et al 2022).…”

Section: Impacts Of Changing Permafrostmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impacts and adaptation to permafrost change in High Mountain Asia: a comprehensive review

Baral,

Allen,

Steiner

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Changing climatic conditions in High Mountain Asia (HMA), especially regional warming and changing precipitation patterns, have led to notable effects on mountain permafrost. Comprehensive knowledge of mountain permafrost in HMA is mostly limited to the mountains of the Qinghai Tibetan Plateau (QTP), with a strong cluster of research activity related to critical infrastructure providing a basis for related climate adaptation measures. Insights related to the extent and changing characteristics of permafrost in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH), are much more limited. This study provides the first comprehensive review of peer-reviewed journal articles, focused on hydrological, ecological, and geomorphic impacts associated with thawing permafrost in HMA, as well as those examining adaptations to changes in mountain permafrost. Studies reveal a clear warming trend across the region, likely resulting in increased landslide activity, effects on streamflow, soil saturation and subsequent vegetation change. Adaptation strategies have been documented only around infrastructure megaprojects as well as animal herding in China. While available research provides important insight that can inform planning in the region, we also identify a need for further research in the areas of hazards related to changing permafrost as well as its effect on ecosystems and subsequently livelihoods. We suggest that future planning of infrastructure in HMA can rely on extrapolation of already existing knowledge within the region to reduce risks associated with warming permafrost. We highlight key research gaps as well as specific areas where insights are limited. These are areas where additional support from governments and funders is urgently needed to enhance regional collaboration to sufficiently understand and effectively respond to permafrost change in the HKH region.

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“…HEC-RAS is a widely used two-dimensional hydraulic model. HEC-RAS offers a range of features and capabilities that enable users to analyze and model complex hydraulic scenarios [29,35]. By solving the full 2D Saint Venant equations or the 2D Diffusion Wave equations, HEC-RAS provides a robust framework for modeling and analyzing hydraulic phenomena.…”

Section: Glof Modeling With Hec-rasmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We set the Manning roughness coefficients to 0.03 for the downstream channel. This value is determined in terms of the land cover and vegetation and is recommended to be 0.025-0.033, where there is no vegetation in the channel [28,29,38]. We utilized the full momentum equation to model the flow dynamics.…”

Section: Glof Modeling With Hec-rasmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Monitoring and Modeling through Integrating Multiple Remote Sensing Methods and HEC-RAS

Yang,

Lu,

Ouyang

et al. 2023

Remote Sensing

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The Shishapangma region, situated in the middle of the Himalayas, is rich in glacial lakes and glaciers. Hence, glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) have become a top priority because of the severe threat posed by GLOFs to the downstream settlements. This study presents a comprehensive analysis of GLOF hazards using multi-source remote sensing datasets and designs a flood model considering the different breaching depths and release volumes for the Galong Co region. Based on high-resolution optical images, we derived the expanding lake area and volume of glacial lakes. We monitored deformation velocity and long-term deformation time series around the lake dam with Small BAseline Subset Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (SBAS-InSAR). The glacier thinning trend was obtained from the difference in the Digital Elevation Model (DEM). We identified potential avalanche sources by combining topographic slope and measurable deformation. We then carried out flood modeling under three different scenarios using the hydrodynamic model HEC-RAS for Galong Co, which is formed upstream of Nyalam. The results show that the Nyalam region is exposed to high-intensity GLOFs in all scenarios. The larger breaching depth and release volumes caused a greater flow depth and peak discharge. Overall, the multiple remote sensing approaches can be applied to other glacial lakes, and the modeling can be used as a basis for GLOF mitigation.

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Modeling Potential Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Process Chains and Effects From Artificial Lake‐Level Lowering at Gepang Gath Lake, Indian Himalaya

Abstract: The high sensitivity of the World's glaciers to a changing climate is leading to widespread glacier retreat across the globe (

Cited by 18 publications

References 104 publications

Mass Movement Hazard and Exposure in the Himalaya

Mass Movement Hazard and Exposure in the Himalaya

Climate change impacts and adaptation to permafrost change in High Mountain Asia: a comprehensive review

Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Monitoring and Modeling through Integrating Multiple Remote Sensing Methods and HEC-RAS

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