The variable climatic and environmental conditions associated with dryland regions can cause rapid erosion to both natural and man‐made earthen structures. Whilst there is a long history of research into the evolution of erosional landforms such as yardangs, little research has investigated how dryland processes influence the erosion of built structures. Earthen heritage sites located in arid and semi‐arid environments experience rapid deterioration caused by exposure to environmental drivers such as wind and rain. Understanding how these environmental drivers interact with each other and cause deterioration to earthen material is vital for successful conservation strategies. To address this need, we present the Vegetation and Sediment TrAnsport model for Heritage Deterioration (ViSTA‐HD) that simulates the risk of polishing, pitting and slurry on earthen heritage in a spatially specific manner. A technical description of the model is provided, and sensitivity and validation tests are reported. The model is then used to simulate the risk of deterioration occurring over centennial timescales at a Suoyang Ancient City, located in semi‐arid northwest China. The modelled risk of deterioration is in good agreement with deterioration patterns found at Suoyang, with the risk of polishing predominantly occurring around the wall edges, areas at risk of pitting echoing the dune formation and the risk of slurry occurring in drape‐like patterns down the wall face. Consequently, ViSTA‐HD is a powerful and versatile model that can be used to help inform our understandings of long‐term interactions between dryland processes and deteriorative impact on earthen structures. © 2020 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd