Modeling Resource Use Responses to Macroeconomic Changes: Water in the US Southern Great Plains

Abstract

<p align="justify"> <span style="font-family:Verdana;color:black;">This study addressed the impacts of the 2008 US recession on water extraction rates from the Ogallala Aquifer in the Southern High Plains of Texas by examining the differences in projected macroeconomic variables and how they im</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;color:black;">pact agricultural production and irrigation water use. The approach used pre- and post-recession FAPRI-based projec</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;color:black;">tions of commodity markets and an economic optimization model formulated for the Ogallala Aquifer to simulate water use adjustments. Results indicate that, based on the projections used, the 2008 recession </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;color:black;">decreased, then </span><span style="color:black;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;">increased water use slightly in the representative counties, </span><i><span style="font-family:Verdana;">ceteris</span></i> <i><span style="font-family:Verdana;">paribus</span></i><span style="font-family:Verdana;">, </span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;color:black;">with minimal cumulative effect, </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;color:black;">and water use responsive</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;color:black;">ness to economic forces within the region was variable. This analysis also demonstrates that relating policy and eco</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;color:black;">nomic changes to resource use changes is possible.</span> </p