Modeling risk analysis for rice production due to agro-climate change and uncertainty in irrigation water

Wu, Szu-Hsien; Chiueh, Ya-Wen; Hsu, Chih-Tsung

doi:10.1007/s10333-017-0611-1

Cited by 6 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…On limited arable land, maintaining high and stable rice yields is an effective way to meet the world's growing demand for food (Pan et al 2019). However, with the intensification of climate change, the frequency and intensity of droughts and heavy rains have increased, leading to increased uncertainty in food production and exacerbating food security problems (Ho et al 2018;Wu et al 2018). The occurrence of strong winds, typhoons, and heavy rains during extreme weather events increases the frequency of crop lodging.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Controlling the lodging risk of rice based on a plant height dynamic model

Chen

Yang

et al. 2022

Bot Stud

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Background Rice is a key global food crop. Rice lodging causes a reduction in plant height and crop yield, and rice is prone to lodging in the late growth stage because of panicle initiation. We used two water irrigation modes and four fertilizer application intervals to investigate the relationship between lodging and various cultivation conditions over 2 years. Results Plant height data were collected and combined with aerial images, revealing that rice lodging was closely related to the nitrogen fertilizer content. The aerial images demonstrated that lodging mainly occurred in the fields treated with a high-nitrogen fertilizer, and analysis of variance revealed that plant height was signifi-cantly affected by nitrogen fertilizer. These results demonstrated that rice plant height in the booting stage was significantly positively correlated with the lodging results (r = 0.67) and nega-tively correlated with yield (r = − 0.46). If the rice plant height in the booting stage exceeded 70.7 cm and nitrogen fertilizer was continuously applied, according to the predicted growing curve of plant height, the plant would be at risk of lodging. Results showed more rainfall accumulated in the later stage of rice growth accompanied by strong instantaneous gusts, the risk of lodging in-creased. Conclusion The results provide predictions that can be applied in intelligent production and lodging risk management, and they form the basis of cultivation management and response policies for each growth period.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Controlling the lodging risk of rice based on a plant height dynamic model

Chen

Yang

et al. 2022

Bot Stud

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“…The reservoir-based supply system could stably supply the irrigation water according to the control operation rules. In contrast, the irrigation water from the natural river-based system might be unsteadily provided, due to the uncertainties in the hydrological variables caused by climatic change (e.g., precipitation and evapotranspiration) and variation of the topographic features, such as the riverbed and cross-section [2][3][4][5][6][7][8]. With high variations possibly existing in the natural river-related irrigation water, the practical water allocation is rarely implemented, due to the unsteady water from the river-based supply system.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Step (8): Evaluate the reliability of irrigation water supply at the canals, attributed to the variation in the specific uncertainty factors selected in Step (7) through the exceedance probability calculation equations established in Step (7).…”

Section: Introduction To the Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling Probabilistic-Based Reliability Analysis for Irrigation Water Supply Due to Uncertainties in Hydrological and Irrigation Factors

Mai

Lin

et al. 2022

Sustainability

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This study aims to model a probabilistic-based reliability analysis, named the RA_IWS_Canal model, for calculating the probability of the irrigation water supply exceeding the water demand (i.e., reliability) within a multi-canal irrigation zone due to variations in hydrological and irrigation uncertainty factors. The proposed RA_IWS_Canal model is developed by coupling uncertainty and risk analysis with a logistic regression equation. The Zhudong irrigation zone, located within the Touqian River watershed in northern Taiwan, was selected as the study area, with the inflow from Shanping Weir, water supplies at 15 irrigation canals, and water intakes of two reservoirs (Baoshan and Baoshan II) and a water treatment plant (Yuandon); 1000 simulations of 10-day irrigation water allocations and resulting exceedance probabilities of the water supplies at the 15 canals were achieved using the multivariate Monte Carlo simulation and the uncertainty with the water allocation model (RIBASIM), and employed in the development of the proposed RA_IWS_Canal model. The model development and application results indicate that the uncertainty factors and the inflow from Shanping Weir markedly and positively influence the exceedance probability of the canal-based irrigation water supply to boost the corresponding reliability (about 0.8). The water intake of the Baoshan Reservoir has a lower relationship (by 0.19) than the Yuandon water treatment plant with the reliabilities of the irrigation water supplies at its downstream canals. As a result, the proposed RA_IWS_Canal model can evaluate the effect of not only the canal-based uncertainty factors, but also the regional features on the irrigation water supply reliability. In addition, using the proposed RA_IWS_Canal model, the planned irrigation water demands at various canals within a multi-canal irrigation zone could be accordingly formulated based on acceptable reliability.

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“…In fact, rice cultivation consumes about 24%-30% of fresh water resources in its whole life cycle. Water-saving strategies and improved varieties with high water use efficiency [2] have been developed [3][4][5]. In the world, 79 million ha cultivation of low land rice provides 75% of the world's rice production [6].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exogenous Foliar Application of Glycine Betaine to Alleviate Water Deficit Tolerance in Two Indica Rice Genotypes under Greenhouse Conditions

et al. 2019

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The aim of this investigation was to enhance overall growth, yield attributes as well as physio-biochemical adaptive strategies by exogenous foliar application of glycine betaine (GlyBet) in two rice varieties against water deficit stress under greenhouse conditions. Rice crop cvs. RD43 (low amylose content) and SPR1 (high amylose content) grown in clay pots containing garden soil until booting stage were chosen as the test plant material, sprayed by 0 (control) or 100 mM GlyBet and subsequently subjected to: MWD (mild water deficit by 8 d water withholding; 24.80% SWC; Soil water content) or SWD (severe water deficit by 14 d water withholding; 13.63% SWC) or WW (well-watered conditions or control). Free proline content in cv. RD43 was rapidly increased in relation to the degree of water deficit and suppressed by exogenous GlyBet, while free proline in cv. SPR1 was lower than cv. RD43. Overall growth performances and yield traits in both cultivars under MWD were maintained by exogenous application of GlyBet; however, these parameters declined under SWD even after the GlyBet application. Degradation of photosynthetic pigments and chlorophyll fluorescence in pretreated GlyBet plants under SWD were prevented, resulting in elevated net photosynthetic rate (Pn). Interestingly, Pn was very sensitive parameter that sharply declined under SWD in both RD43 and SPR1 genotypes. Positive relationships between physio-morphological and biochemical changes in rice genotypes were demonstrated with high correlation co-efficiency. Based on the key results, it is concluded that foliar GlyBet application may play an important role in drought-tolerant enhancement in rice crops.

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Modeling risk analysis for rice production due to agro-climate change and uncertainty in irrigation water

Cited by 6 publications

References 22 publications

Controlling the lodging risk of rice based on a plant height dynamic model

Controlling the lodging risk of rice based on a plant height dynamic model

Modeling Probabilistic-Based Reliability Analysis for Irrigation Water Supply Due to Uncertainties in Hydrological and Irrigation Factors

Exogenous Foliar Application of Glycine Betaine to Alleviate Water Deficit Tolerance in Two Indica Rice Genotypes under Greenhouse Conditions

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