Modeling Ship Transportation Risk

Abstract

This article presents results from the Commission of the European Communities (CEC) project "Safety of Shipping in Coastal Waters" (SAFECO). The project was performed by ten European partners during the period 1995-1998. The principal aim of the SAFECO project was to determine the influences that could increase the safety of shipping in coastal waters by analyzing the underlying factors contributing to the marine accident risk level. The work reported here focuses on the Marine Accident Risk Calculation System (MARCS) that was further developed during the SAFECO project. This paper presents the methods used by MARCS, as well as data and results from a "demonstration of concept" case study covering the North Sea area. The estimated accident frequencies (number of accidents per year) were compared with historical accident data, to demonstrate the validity of the modeling approach. Reasonable (within a factor of 5) to good (within a factor of 2) agreement between calculated accident frequencies and observed accident statistics was generally obtained. However, significant discrepancies were identified for some ship types and accident categories. The risk model has particular problems with estimating the accident frequency for drift grounding in general and powered grounding for ferries. It was concluded that these discrepancies are related to uncertainties in several areas, specifically in the risk model algorithms, the traffic data, the error and failure probability data, and the historical accident statistics.

A Numerical Study on the Maneuverability of a Twin-screw Ship under Single Rudder Failure

“…따라서 어떤 고장 모드를 어떻게 수치적으로 계산할 수 있는지에 대한 연구가 필요 하였다. 대부분의 좌초 사고가 기계적인 고장이 발생한 이후에 바람, 파도, 조류의 영향을 받아 발생한다고 주장하는 연구가 수 행된 바 있다 (Fowler, et al 2000). 또, 선박의 운항 과정에서 조타장치 고장(steering system failure)을 고려하여 가장 위험한 고장 시나리오를 찾는 연구를 수행한 바 있다 (Mohovic, et al, 2013 (Kijima, et al, 1990;Fujii & Tsuda, 1961;1962 (Fujii & Tsuda 1961;1962 …”

A Theoretical Risk Management Framework for Vessels Operating Near Offshore Wind Farms

“…As such, causation probabilities are often calculated through sophisticated risk assessment methods such as Fault Trees, Event Tress (Fowler and Sørgård 2000;Haugen 1991) and Bayesian Networks (Akhtar and Utne 2013;Dai et al 2013;Hänninen et al 2013;Hänninen and Kujala 2012;Szwed et al 2006;Friis-Hansen 2000;Friis-Hansen and Simonsen 2002). Using risk assessment methods can allow various factors-such as human and organizational errors, configuration of the navigational area, navigational aids and markings, bathymetry, and coastal state features such as VTS-to be taken into consideration (Friis-Hansen 2008).…”

Use of AIS Data to Characterise Marine Traffic Patterns and Ship Collision Risk off the Coast of Portugal

“…Distribution of ships' speeds, total area studied. Fujii et al, 1974;Fowler and Sørgård, 2000;Otto et al, 2002;Rosqvist et al, 2002;Kujala et al, 2009;Hänninen and Kujala, 2010;Montewka et al, 2010).…”