Modeling spatial risk of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in Central Iran

Shiravand, Babak; Tafti, Abbas Ali Dehghani; Hanafi‐Bojd, Ahmad Ali; Almodaresi, Seyed Ali; Mirzaei, Masoud; Abai, Mohammad Reza

doi:10.1016/j.actatropica.2018.06.015

Cited by 17 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…Conversely, the probability of the presence of this species will decrease in higher altitudes with temperature being the strongest predictor. Previous studies on this sand fly showed the mean temperature of the wettest quarter (bio8), precipitation of the wettest quarter (bio16), altitude and the annual mean temperature had the highest association when used individually in the model (Abedi‐Astaneh et al., 2015; Hanafi‐Bojd et al., 2015,2017; Shiravand et al., 2018; Sofizadeh et al., 2016).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Climate change and its effect on the vulnerability to zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in Iran

Charrahy

Yaghoobi–Ershadi

Shirzadi

et al. 2021

Transbounding Emerging Dis

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Zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) is an important vector‐borne disease with an incidence of 15.8 cases per 100,000 people in Iran in 2019. Despite all efforts to control the disease, ZCL has expanded into new areas during the last decades. The aim of this study was to predict the best ecological niches for both vectors and reservoirs of ZCL under climate change scenarios in Iran. Several online scientific databases were searched. In this study, various scientific sources (Google Scholar, PubMed, SID, Ovid Medline, Web of Science, Irandoc, Magiran) were searched. The inclusion criteria for this study included all records with spatial information about vectors and reservoirs of ZCL which were published between 1980 and 2019. The bioclimatic data were downloaded from online databases. MaxEnt model was used to predict the ecological niches for each species under two climate change scenarios in two periods: the 2030s and 2050s. The results obtained from the model were analysed in ArcMap to find the vulnerability of different provinces for the establishment of ZCL foci. The area under the curve (AUC) for all models was >0.8, which suggests the models are able to make an accurate prediction. The distribution of all studied species in different climatic conditions showed changes. The variables affecting each of the studied species are introduced in the article. The predicted maps show that by 2050 there will be more suitable areas for the co‐occurrence of vector and reservoir(s) of ZCL in Iran compared to the current climate condition and RCP2.6 scenario. An area in the northwest of Iran is predicted to have suitable environmental conditions for both vectors and reservoirs of ZCL, although the disease has not yet been reported in this area. These areas should be considered for field studies to confirm these results and to prevent the establishment of new ZCL foci in Iran.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Climate change and its effect on the vulnerability to zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in Iran

Charrahy

Yaghoobi–Ershadi

Shirzadi

et al. 2021

Transbounding Emerging Dis

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“…According to the result of jackknife test, land use was the most effective variable for predicting the environmental suitability of P. papatasi . Other modelling studies on this vector species indicated that temperature (Hanafi‐Bojd et al, ; Shiravand et al, ), slope (Sofizadeh et al, 2016), precipitation of wettest quarter (Abedi‐Astaneh et al, ), altitude (Hanafi‐Bojd et al, ) and rainfall (Abdel‐Dayem et al, ) had the most effect on the model in different geographical areas.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 96%

“…According to the result of jackknife test, land use was the most effective variable for predicting the environmental suitability of P. papatasi. Other modelling studies on this vector species indicated that temperature (Hanafi-Bojd et al, 2015;Shiravand et al, 2018), slope (Sofizadeh et al, 2016), precipitation of wettest quarter Climate change affects the emergence of leishmaniasis (Ready, 2008). It is investigated in some areas of the world (Bounoua et al, 2013;González et al, 2010;Peterson & Shaw, 2003;Shiravand et al, 2019).…”

Section: Con Clus Ionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…in different parts of the country (Hanafi-Bojd et al, 2015). Some other studies also predicted the ecological niches of ZCL vector and reservoirs in recent years (da Costa, Cordeiro, & Rangel, 2018;Shiravand et al, 2018;Sofizadeh et al, 2016). A research study of CL distribution in Colombia reported that weather variables (temperature, precipitation) and ground conditions could be used to identify areas at risk of CL (Pérez-Flórez, Ocampo, Valderrama-Ardila, & Alexander, 2016).…”

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confidence: 99%

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Modelling and evaluating the risk of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in selected areas of Kerman Province, south of Iran

Afshar

Hojjat

Yaghoobi–Ershadi

et al. 2020

Transbound Emerg Dis

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Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) remains a public health problem in the world, particularly in tropical and sub‐tropical countries. This study aimed to determine the hotspots of CL in Kerman Province of Iran and model their potential for the establishment of new disease foci. All documents related to studies conducted in Kerman Province on CL published between 1978 and 2017 were retrieved and categorized. Spatial distributions of the vector, reservoir and human infection of CL were mapped. MaxEnt ecological model was used to predict the environmental suitability of the vector and reservoir(s) of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL). The most hazardous sites with the potential for the establishment of new disease foci were determined for field operations. Statistics of new cases of CL was obtained from the Center for Disease Control (CDC) of the ministry of health for the period 2011–2016. A total of 6,056 cases of CL were recorded, while we found a decreasing pattern in the incidence of CL from 46.48 per 100,000 inhabitants to 22.97. The best ecological niches for Phlebotomus papatasi are located in the central, western, northwest and southwest regions of the province. Also, environmental suitability for the reservoirs was highest in the central, southern and southwestern regions. The model predicted the gerbils can be present in some foci of anthroponotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ACL). However, this result should be confirmed through a precise field study, and if validated, plans should be made to prevent the emergence of new foci of ZCL in the risk areas.

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“…It is crucial to note the risk of the disease spreading from rural to urban areas, resulting in the anthropization of cutaneous leishmaniasis. Efficiently controlling the-indoor population of sandfly vectors is crucial to reducing the incide-nce of leishmaniases, a pre-ssing need that require-s immediate attention (38,24,11,72).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Epidemiological Aspects of Zoonotic Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (ZCL) in Iran, the Middle East, and Worldwide: A Comprehensive Systematic Review

jamali,

Bokaie

2024

Preprint

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Introduction and objectives: Zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) remains a significant health problem, particularly in Iran, where 15.8 cases per 100,000 people were reported in 2019. Iran accounted for more than half of all new cases in the Eastern Mediterranean region in 2008. entified several countries in the Middle East and North Africa, including Syria, Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan, Iraq, Yemen, Tunisia, Morocco, Libya and Egypt, as having the highest rates of this disease, which is a major burden in the rural areas of these regions. ZCL is a major global health problem, especially in countries such as Iran, the Middle East and North Africa.ZCL is a major global health problem, particularly in countries such as Iran, the Middle East and North Africa. Despite the existing research on cutaneous leishmaniasis, few studies focus exclusively on the epidemiologic aspects of ZCL. This systematic study aims to fill this gap by investigating the geographical distribution and cause of occurrence and identifying reservoirs, vectors and sites of ZCL occurrence, focusing on high-risk areas such as Algeria and Tunisia in North Africa in figure 8. Areas suitable for vector-borne transmission and ZCL reservoirs are expected to increase in the future. Understanding the ecological links between vectors, reservoirs and the Leishmania parasite is crucial for the development of effective control and prevention strategies. It is expected that the regions favorable for vector-borne transmission and the reservoirs of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) will expand as environmental conditions evolve. To develop effective control and prevention strategies, it is important to understand the ecological interplay between vectors, reservoirs and the leishmaniasis parasite. Climate change is expected to exacerbate the threat of ZCL by 2050, potentially increasing the suitability of habitats for vectors and reservoirs. This study uniquely examines the epidemiologic aspects of ZCL globally, filling a gap in the current literature that predominantly addresses cutaneous leishmaniasis in a broader context. Results: This study provides a detailed insight into the increasing prevalence of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) in Iran. It identifies Iran, where 18 out of 31 provinces are affected, as a critical area, especially the central provinces. Key factors such as Leishmania reservoirs in rodents, emerging reservoirs, and specific vectors contribute significantly to the transmission of the disease and are influenced by environmental and climatic conditions in Iran, the Middle East, and North Africa. The study highlights new hotspots in Iran, such as Beyza district in Fars province and regions in Isfahan and Razavi Khorasan provinces, which indicate the dynamic nature of the spread of ZCL associated with urbanization and climate change. Predictive modeling suggests that an increase in ZCL may soon occur in northwestern Iran due to suitable environmental conditions for the vectors and reservoirs. On the other hand, the identification of new reservoirs was an important result. These included different hedgehog species (Paraechinus aethiopicus, Atelerix algirus, and Hemiechinus auritus) in Algeria, Tunisia, and Iran as well as calomyscid rodents in Shiraz, the capital of the Iranian province of Fars. Interestingly, specific vectors and reservoirs make Tunisia and Algeria high-risk areas in North Africa, emphasizing the need for regional integrated control measures. The results highlight a crucial gap in the research and control of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis outside Iran. In the last ten years, the focus has been less on the Middle East and Central Asia, although the disease is widespread in these regions. Conclusion: This review emphasizes the critical need for a combined approach to the control and prevention of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL). This study emphasizes the role of climate change and urban expansion in influencing disease dynamics. The identification of new endemic areas and prediction of future hotspots in Iran will provide valuable insights for targeting prevention and control measures. This underlines the importance of regional collaboration and adaptive strategies in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries to effectively tackle this neglected tropical disease as part of the One Health approach. As the first comprehensive study on the epidemiology of ZCL, this study fills a significant gap in the literature and provides a foundation for future research and public health interventions to mitigate the global impact of ZCL. This systematic review highlights the complicated and multifaceted nature of the disease, which is influenced by various vectors, reservoir hosts, and environmental factors. This comprehensive review not only deepens our understanding of the epidemiology of ZCL, but also provides crucial insights for health managers and policy makers. This knowledge can help them to identify high-risk areas, implement targeted prevention measures, and develop effective control programs to combat this endemic disease. Keywords: Zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis, Iran, MiddleEast, Epidemiology, Reservoir, Vector, Systematic Review

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Modeling spatial risk of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in Central Iran

Cited by 17 publications

References 19 publications

Climate change and its effect on the vulnerability to zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in Iran

Climate change and its effect on the vulnerability to zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in Iran

Modelling and evaluating the risk of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in selected areas of Kerman Province, south of Iran

Epidemiological Aspects of Zoonotic Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (ZCL) in Iran, the Middle East, and Worldwide: A Comprehensive Systematic Review

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